The indoor hard court season of the ATP Tour continues this week with events in Vienna and St. Petersburg and Dan Weston is there a preview of both events …
« In the first quarter the winner of Tsitsipas against Grigor Dimitrov should at least reach the semifinals. That is a big part of the reason why Tsitsipas is almost twice as expensive as the tournament favorite Zverev 3.8514 / with 6.86 / 1 5. » «
Jannik Sinner and Aslan Karatsev emerged from last week’s indoor hard events as winners, and both will be back in action next week. Karatsev remains in his home country as one of the seeds in St. Petersburg, while Sinner’s presence at a high-quality 500-level event in Vienna will be fascinating.
In addition to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, he is the big names in Austria.
All the action begins on Monday afternoon in round one of the ATP- This week’s events. In Vienna there is a full 32-man field with no byes for seeds. Therefore, each player has to win five games to lift the trophy on Sunday. Conditions are likely to be fast, even for one Indoor hard court – aces per game, serve percentages won and serve percentages in the Austrian capital are higher than the ATP indoor hard average values.
In theory, this should be the players with the larger serves in of the toss who are likely to benefit from the fast-paced conditions that make it very difficult to break their serve. For Sinner, who competes against the American big server Reilly Opelka in round one, this should be problematic, while the upper half of his second quarter with Casper Ruud, Lloyd Harris and Lorenzo Sonego also looks tough. I would be surprised if the Italian would play back to back this week.
In the first quarter, the Tsitsipas winner against Grigor Dimitrov – certainly the game of the round – should at least reach the semi-finals. That’s a big part of the reasons why Tsitsipas is almost twice as expensive at 6.86 / 1 as the tournament favorite Zverev at 3.8514 / 5.
The third quarter should be played by players like Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Berrettini. The Italian Berrettini has excellent service numbers while Hurkacz is also strong. Both look like realistic second-tier options on the overall market, while Zverev faces slightly weaker opponents in the quarter than some other groups, such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex De Minaur and Cameron Norrie.
It’s not a big surprise to see Zverev as a tournament favorite, especially considering the level he has shown in recent months.
At the 250th event in St. Petersburg, four seeded – Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Aslan Karatsev and Denis Shapovalov – bye in the first round.
Rublev is the only top 10 player in the field. He’s the tournament favorite at 4.67 / 2, and conditions are likely slower than Vienna – historical data suggests St. Petersburg will be slower than average. In theory, this should create a tournament with less than average service holds and fewer tiebreaks.
The qualifiers have yet to be included in the draw, which makes things a little tricky. One is Emil Ruusuvuori who is a pretty solid player indoors and another is Botic van de Zandschulp who has been doing well lately.
Of the seeds, Rublev is obviously the favorite. If he’s not tired of his success last week, Karatsev should be prominent too. One of the unset players who also have potential is Sebastian Korda, who hasn’t played particularly well since his back injury in August but has huge advantages.
In these slower conditions, I expect a fairly competitive tournament with a number of capable players. Rublev is the favorite, but there are plenty of players who are able to pick up a late season trophy.
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