CM – Bundestag election begins post-Merkel era with uncertainty for Von der Leyen

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EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels this week. Photo: François Walschaerts / Pool via Reuters

Thanks to one measure – the agreement on record EU funding for a Covid-19 recovery – Ursula von der Leyen is a very successful chairman of the European Commission.

But for many the question now arises how she will fare when her mentor and most important political supporter Angela Merkel leaves the scene.

It is a question of great political intrigue. But it also brings more substantial questions about the future direction of the European Union in a world after Merkel with major effects on smaller states like Ireland.

Von der Leyen, known in Brussels as the VDL, supported three different ministerial posts under Chancellor Merkel The decisive factor in getting the big EU job in autumn 2019 was EU borrowing on the world money markets – would not have been possible without Merkel’s political oomph.

History teaches us that the support from Berlin and Paris is crucial is to advance important EU projects. This can be seen in the example of the French Jacques Delors, who headed the Commission from 1985 to 1995 and was enormously supported by French President François Mitterand and Federal Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

Delors’ legacy includes the borderless internal market and the common currency, the Euro. And if you’re driving between Irish cities these days, it’s noteworthy that the Delors era has a 1.2 billion decade The agenda of the economic recovery after Covid and important steps to combat climate change have been fulfilled and their hopes for a second five-year term in office have actually been fulfilled. They depend on further support from Berlin, which in turn depends on tomorrow’s elections in Germany for a world after Merkel. </ Tomorrow around teatime we will probably be able to read the trend in the results. Your old party in Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU), has had a bad election campaign and is lagging behind, but still cannot be dismissed as a potential leader in the next coalition government.

But even this worst result may not be enough to keep things between the rifts from the point of view of VDL and Brussels. Apart from Merkel’s departure, tomorrow’s general election will give the country its first tripartite government with a high probability since the post-war state was founded in 1949. For decades, the CDU and SPD were the two big beasts that took turns in power. But now, a bit like in the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael story here, their combined total support is below 50 percent, with the Green Party, the liberal FDP, the rebuilt communists of the Left Party and the right-wing anti-immigrant AfD, all different parts of the Claim action.

The 16-year era of Merkel’s leadership has masked this change. Some in Germany believe the country could be headed for what happened in the Netherlands, where 17 parties sit in the national parliament in the March elections. The Dutch talks about a five-party coalition failed in August. Acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte is now trying to put together a three-party minority government.

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A year ago, after 493 days of negotiations, Belgium finally elected a seven-party coalition. But even in the eternally stable Germany it took Merkel almost six months to put together the current outgoing government. This was another « grand coalition » between Merkel’s CDU and the SPD.

All variations of the coalition results pose challenges for VDL in order to retain Berlin’s support. A government led by the SPD could reduce the relationship to a formal chill. This could be exacerbated by the liberal FDP winning the finance ministry and continuing its insistence on a return to frugality without the EU taking out more loans and subjecting strict rules to government deficits and debts due to Covid.

Even with the less likely outcome of their own CDU winning in the horse trade after the election, there would still be problems. The harsh reality is that she is unloved by many of her old party colleagues.

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