The number of new cases of Covid-19 in California rose by around 10% over the weekend, a period in which it is often under-counted due to fewer tests on Saturdays and Sundays. The 10,356 new cases reported on Friday rose to a three-day daily average of 11,135 on Monday. (The state stopped reporting daily cases on weekends and now reports a three-day flat rate on Mondays.) That 10% increase on Monday followed a one-day increase of 39% from Thursday to Friday last week, an increase in That means new cases of a total of 49 percent since Thursday. More reliable measures of the spread of infection have also increased dramatically.
On Wednesday, the number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the state was 12.7. As of Monday, the number had risen to 16.7 infections per 100,000, an increase of about 30% in five days.
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The state’s 7-day test positive rate – another trustworthy indicator of the spread – rose from 6.2% on Thursday to 6.9% on Monday. That’s an 8% increase. On June 15, the day the state lifted Covid-19 restrictions, the 7-day test positive rate was 0.9%.
California hospitals have over 1,000 new Covid patients in the past week recorded, a significant increase as the number of patients hospitalized with the virus last Monday the 26th was 3,595. Today the reported number of infected patients was 4,772.
L.A. is driving much of the increase. On a day last week, the county, which makes up 25% of the state’s population, recorded nearly half of its new cases every day.
The Providence Saint John Health Center in Santa Monica – a city that has about 80% of those eligible Residents are vaccinated – is full of Covid patients, according to a report in the New York Times on Monday.
Figures released last Tuesday by LA County’s Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer show that the The number of new Covid patients under the age of 12 has quintupled. (Looking ahead, those under 12 who are not eligible for vaccination make up about 15% of the county’s population.) While the raw case numbers were low compared to county’s residents ages 12 to 49, they are no data to suggest the spread of infection.
In the two-week period ending July 18, there were 89 cases per 100,000 people ages 0-4 and 112 cases per 100,000 ages 5-11. While no pediatric Covid deaths were recorded in the county from June 18 to July 18, Ferrer’s presentation to the board showed that the hospitalization rate for children ages 0-4 in Los Angeles County had doubled in one month. See graph below.
The surge in the number of cases among the very young is exactly what many health experts have feared, as daily vaccinations are still low compared to last winter and the state’s vaccination rate for all citizens – including those who that are not eligible for vaccination – is below 55%. Many children in the state are slated to return to school shortly, where masks are required.
News from a school district in the East Bay area that recently returned to face-to-face learning is not promising. The 11-school Brentwood district confirmed at least 15 positive Covid cases among its students and staff just three days after the start of the new school year. While cases in children are mostly mild, faster spread due to the delta variant – and the possibility of new variants emerging as the virus mutates among new hosts – is not a nice picture for children or parents who have already been through one Year of pandemic worries, not to mention homeschooling.
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