The Canadian press
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Raywat Deonandan is more hopeful these days and has seen renewed optimism among many of his epidemiological and infectious disease colleagues.
After months of watching negative COVID-19 trends, Deonandan is « full of joy » as cases, hospitalizations and deaths decline in most parts of Canada as vaccination rates rise to new levels.
Canada’s introduction reached a major milestone on Saturday: 50 percent of the total population was at least partially vaccinated, even though 58 percent of the country’s adult population had received at least one dose on Friday.
The 50 percent mark won’t have an immediate impact on plans to reopen services or lift public health restrictions, but Deonandan says it marks a new, more encouraging era of pandemic in Canada.
« It’s a milestone, » said the University of Ottawa epidemiologist. « It’s like, hey, we as a society have passed an important point in this marathon and can almost see the finish line.
An increase in Canada’s vaccine supply resulted in the national rollout shifting from sluggish to supersonic in April and May. In the past week, an average of more than 370,000 doses were administered per day.
That, coupled with Canadians’ apparent willingness to get their pokes – some have queued outside pop-up clinics for hours in the rain or snow – gives Deonandan hope of what the summer might be like.
« It means people want out of here and want to do their part, » he said. « So I’m very optimistic, and I think a lot of the scientists watching the numbers are optimistic too. »
According to Deonandan, vaccination has helped reduce transmission, but lockdown measures and restrictions have also played a key role.
And while optimism is warranted, caution is advised by experts in this intermediate phase, while half of Canada’s residents are still not protected from COVID-19.
Health Canada has announced that at least 75 percent of eligible Canadians – ages 12 and older – should be vaccinated with one dose and 20 percent fully vaccinated before easing measures. By Friday, less than five percent of Canadians had received both shots.
Deonandan says vaccination numbers alone don’t determine when to reopen. Case numbers, hospital and intensive care units, test positivity ratios, and the reproductive rate (how many people a positive case is likely to infect) must all decrease.
Keith Dobson, professor of psychology at the University of Calgary, says Canada’s introduction has increased his optimism that life in the country could soon return to relatively normal. But there is still a lot to do.
According to Dobson, reaching the 50 percent threshold is psychologically similar to getting a second wind after the middle of a race or seeing positive changes in your body after months of training.
« We know from studies of human behavior that when people get closer to a target, their energy usually rises, and we see that, » Dobson said. « The key, of course, is not to burn out before you get there. So we have to keep working hard to achieve our goal. »
The UK, where 55 percent of its residents were at least partially vaccinated as of Thursday, will ease further restrictions next week, including allowing small gatherings of up to six people indoors between two households.
The United States recently released guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals that include loose mask guidelines in some indoor areas. While the overall vaccination rate in the US is now slightly lower than in Canada, a higher percentage of Americans are fully immunized.
Steve Joordens, psychology expert at the University of Toronto, says vaccines have renewed hope for many.
Still, Joordens said, it might be difficult for some to be optimistic after seeing biking periods of lockdowns and rising COVID-19 numbers over the past 15 months. The potential threat of new vaccine-resistant variants is another unknown occurrence that is causing fear, he adds.
But with vaccines reaching more people every day, the current situation feels different than it did in previous waves, according to Joordens. And he feels a degree of cohesion among people who have not been seen since the beginning of the pandemic.
« This (50 percent milestone) is an important number because it looks like, ‘OK, we’re over half now, » said Joordens. « The majority of us march the same way.
“So it gives us a sense of how well the team is working to defeat this virus.”
People will be on Saturday, May 22, 2021 at the COVID-19 vaccination center at the Bill Durnan Arena in Montreal shown. (THE CANADIAN PRESS / Graham Hughes)
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