In the last game before Christmas, Paul Krishnamurty believes that supporting Melbourne Stars is a gift to get the total number of four beat …
« The market rates stars as superior at 1,794 / 5 versus 2,245 / 4. It’s hard to argue with that and may be understating the difference. »
Less than a third of the season opens a sizable and predictable gap. Last year’s finalists Perth Scorchers and Sydney Sixers storm into the play-offs with six Big Bash titles. Melbourne Renegades are deeply rooted for the third year in a row. The often-fighting Brisbane Heat and Adelaide Strikers are under pressure to reach one of the five play-off spots.
Today’s game takes place between two teams caught in the middle of the table and having these characteristics. Frequent contenders and always on the lookout for their first title.
When I started Big Bash XI on Cricket … Only Bettor, I, along with Sixers, included both Hurricanes and Stars in a trio of Quinella bets. There are still all chances if the play-offs go well, although after several bangs from Scorchers I am slowly losing faith in the former.
Hurricanes have lost three out of four games but it should be noted they all were against the big two. A good series of results against the rest and the play-offs remain easily within reach. In fact, three bonus points on the bank mean that they can move up to the top 4 with this win.
However, the market rates Stars better at 1,794 / 5 compared to 2,245 / 4. This is hard to argue with and may be understating the difference. While they lost two out of four games, both were against Sixers and one against a very tired team. Last time they put together a very competitive first innings before being knocked down by the Master Hunters.
Team-wise, they certainly look stronger right now. Glenn Maxwell hit a ton last time and with Andre Russell now in the finisher role they have the power to make huge sums of money.
Considering that Marcus Stoinis and Joe Clarke only put 61 runs together from seven appearances have contributed, their potential for improvement is enormous if and if this couple delivers. No one has reached a six yet.
The law that form is temporary but grade is permanent indicates that at least one of them will be good. Clarke’s place must be in doubt, but if the Englishman gets another chance, 7.06 / 1 for Top Stars Batsman and 26.025 / 1 for Man of the Match are eye-catching possible overreactions.
Hurricanes are also quite capable of get high scores. They beat 213 against Sixers and historically Matthew Wade, D’Arcy Short and Ben McDermott have great pedigree in this competition and here, their home.
However, three scores of 130 or less must be a major concern and their mean one Order doesn’t work at all. The middle overs against the spin duo Qais Ahmad and Adam Zampa could be a big problem. If it weren’t for a seemingly systemic bias towards batsmen at the Man of the Match Awards, I’d be tempted by 16/1 and 12/1 for this pair.
Given that Blundstone arenas usually have a high Total amount is required, which in turn indicates stars, we must be careful before the throw. 12 of the last 14 games went to the team that hit first. 167 by Scorchers was the second lowest of these 12 victory points last time.
Therefore, although I prefer Stars by a certain margin, I have to bet on the game odds. Perhaps by the time they get their first crack, Hurricanes will make a very different statement.
Instead, prop them up to hit great runs and limits. A very large sum in the first innings is entirely possible and in the hope that their top order will be delivered, I recommend getting on board when stars strike first. 200 for the third run of the match is quite plausible.
Regardless of whether you hit first or second, I love 5/6 if you hit more than 12.5 fours. They have an average of 11.5 out of four games so far, but that number is weighed down by that paltry 61 when they field a depleted team in the opening game.
The Blundstone is usually ripe for limits – more than most Australian floors . The overs line for both teams combined is 24.5 – that was passed in two-thirds of the last 27 games here. 12.5 over the clear favorites, stacked with power, feels very close at hand.
The two OddsBoost batsmen are Matthew Wade and Marcus Stoinis, whose odds are increased to 3/1 and 11/4 respectively. Both add quite a bit of appeal given their long-standing records, but the former should be preferred as there seems to be little competition from the middle tier in its current form.
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