On the morning of July 31st, the Dodgers and Padres woke to a deficit in the overall standings. The Dodgers were three games behind the San Francisco Giants for first place in the National League West, the Padres were 5½ behind. Neither team knew that the Dodgers had just closed the most important trade of the season – if not the most momentous midseason trade in baseball history.
There are other contenders for this title. We’ll get to them in a moment. First, consider the circumstances that made this particular trade special.
On the afternoon of July 29th, a national reporter tweeted that the Padres were on the verge of acquiring the Washington Nationals all-star pitcher Max Scherzer. Scherzer was skeptical. He had heard nothing of the kind from Mike Rizzo, the general manager of the Nationals. Neither Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers president for baseball operations. The hoax « definitely scared me, » Friedman would say later. « My heart stopped beating for a moment. »
When Scherzer and all-star shortstop Trea Turner were traded to the Dodgers later that day, the double-edged consequence was evident. The Dodgers had not only acquired two impact players; they had prevented a division rival from acquiring the same pair. What followed were two equal and opposite reactions.
Scherzer – 6-0 with an average of 0.88 runs earned in eight starts since trading – became the top-of-the-rotation starter the Dodgers lacked since Trevor Bauer in July 2nd Mookie Betts was in 2020 when he finished second in the National League MVP voting. When Betts finally recovered from his agonizing hip injury, he moved back to the top of the lineup. Turner then offered the mid-order presence, which Cody Bellinger was unable to offer from Day 1.
San Diego’s formidable roster also had leaks. Soon the Padres would be forced to hand the ball over to Jake Arrieta, who was 5-11 with a 6.88 ERA, every fifth game before being released by the Chicago Cubs. (He’s 0-2 with 8.25 ERA in three starts since then.) They dragged star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. into the outfield for a period to keep his ailing left shoulder watching Adam Frazier (.231 with zero home runs in 40 games). Tuesday) stagger as their daily second baseman at the record. Scherzer and Turner could have played these roles with enthusiasm.
The ranking tells a similar story. On July 30th, the Dodgers were 62-40, a win rate of .590. Since then, they have played 31-10 in Wednesday’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks for a win rate of 0.756.
On July 30th, the Padres were 60-46 (.566). Since then, they have entered Wednesday’s game against the San Francisco Giants at 14:24 (0.368). You have lost an unimaginable 18 games in the NL West since July 1st.
There are still more than two weeks left in the regular season. For some, assessing the impact of the Scherzer / Turner trade begins and ends with the postseason. It is not too early for anyone else to admire the effects of the trade. If it holds, the Dodgers’ win (0.166) as of July 30th will be among the best of any competitor recently.
In 2012, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto arrived in an August trade with the Boston Red Sox for James Loney and a package of prospects. The deal helped garner a beleaguered fan base, but it didn’t lift the Dodgers into the postseason right away. They were 69-58 (.543) on the trading day and then moved to 17-18 (.486). That was the last time the Dodgers missed the playoffs.
In 2009 the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, and he scored well enough in his last 53 games to finish fourth in the NL MVP poll. The Dodgers were 54-54 on July 31, a straight .500 and 30-24 (.556) after that.
That little boost made all the difference in winning a relatively weak NL West by two games against the Arizona Diamondbacks; the Dodgers then swept the Cubs in a three-game Division Series before falling into the NLCS.
1. The Detroit Tigers will trade Justin Verlander and Juan Ramirez to the Houston Astros for Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers on August 31, 2017. At 34, Verlander sees his age rejuvenated from his career before swapping it for a competing Astros team. He went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in September, then won four more games in October (plus the ALCS MVP Award) en route to a championship. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: 0.122
2. The Tigers will swap Yoenis Cespedes for the New York Mets on July 31, 2015 for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. Cespedes took some MVP votes after hitting 17 homers in 57 games on the swap that put the Mets in an NL East title – and eventually the World Series. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: 0.112
3. The Colorado Rockies will trade Marco Scutaro to the Giants for Charlie Culberson on July 27, 2012. Scutaro, an unannounced utility player who beat by .361 in the last 61 games of the season, won the NLCS MVP Award and helped the Giants run the Tigers in the World Series. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: .063
4. The Cleveland Indians trade with C.C. Sabathia to Milwaukee Brewers for Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and Matt LaPorta on July 7, 2008. Milwaukee wanted to end a 26-year playoff drought when it acquired Sabathia in its prime. The big left-hander left 11-2 with an ERA of 1.65 – the difference when the Brewers beat the Mets for a wild card game. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: 0.009
5. The Astros acquire Carlos Beltran from the Kansas City Royals in a three-team trade on June 24, 2004. Houston had to skip four teams only to get a place with a wildcard after the trade. Beltran made a big difference in the regular season (23 homers, 53 RBIs in 90 games) and postseason (eight homers in 12 games) when the Astros hit the NLCS. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: .072
6. The Seattle Mariners trade Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama on July 31, 1998. Houston already took first place in the NL Central when it was traded for the future Hall of Famer, but its rotation lacked a clear Game 1 starter. Johnson went down 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA – only to lose twice in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: .102
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7. The Padres swap Fred McGriff for the Atlanta Braves for Vince Moore, Donnie Elliott and Melvin Nieves on July 18, 1993: Atlanta was eight games behind San Francisco in NL West on the day of the trade. Catalyzed by McGriff, their only midseason takeover, the Braves took to the track at 51-18 to hack the division title. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: .169.
8. The Braves swap Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz for John Smoltz on Aug. 12, 1987: Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for Detroit, which was a 1½-game deficit after the swap to win the AL East, only to lose to Minnesota in the ALCS. Smoltz, a prospect at the time, made a career in the Hall of Fame. Difference in profit percentage before / after the trade: .061
Honorable Mention: The Indians trade Rick Sutcliffe, Ron Hassey and George Frazier to the Cubs for Joe Carter, Mel Hall and Don Schulze on June 13, 1984; the Indians trade David Justice to the New York Yankees for Zach Day, Ricky Ledee and Jake Westbrook on June 29, 2000; on July 24, 2009, the Oakland A’s traded Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson and Clayton Mortensen.
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