The Los Angeles Angels (58-58) host the Houston Astros (68-46) on Friday to kick off their three-game series at Angel Stadium. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Greinke is Houston’s scheduled starter. Greinke is 10-3 with 3.69 ERA (136 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB / 9 and 6.6 K / 9 in 23 starts.
LHP Patrick Sandoval is LA’s planned starter.Sandoval is 3-5 with 3.39 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.7 BB / 9 and 9.9 K / 9 in 13 starts and three relief appearances.
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; Visit USA TODAY Sports for a full list. The odds were last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
BET on the ANGEL (115) for 1 unit, as LA is ahead in both relief and pitching and there has been a strong « backward movement » towards LA.
For example the Astros almost 85% of the action, but Houston’s money line has dropped from -155 in the opening game to the current number, according to pregame.com.
It’s a red flag in sports betting when the house makes the more popular side cheaper. For some reason, odds makers are trying to attract more pro Astros action and we don’t want to play into their hands.
The reason for the reverse line movement is that the LA pitching staff could have an advantage in this game . Sandoval has a lower xFIP and SIERA than Greinke this season and does much better than Greinke in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, K% and breath rate.
In addition, LA’s bullpen is after the All-Star game failed. The Angels Reliefs rank eighth in the home run per nine-inning rate as well as the FIP and fourth in WAR for the second half of the year, while Houston’s Bullpen is below average in each of these categories.
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PASS because the Angels 1.5 (-150) is a little more than I would like to risk as they only have ATS 16-34 in games against AL West opponents, while the Astros have ATS 26-18 Have ATS.
For a small bet take « LEAN » UNDER 8.5 (105), because Greinke was great on the road this year and I like the LA pitching staff at this point.
Greinke is 5-0 with 2.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 4.3 K / BB on the road with 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 2.9 K / BBat at home.
Me would wait closer to the first pitch, however, hoping to hit a 9 run total as the market heads towards that. Also, these teams have a 21-14 O / U record when these starters hit the hill.
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