After getting past the Pittsburgh Penguins on Round 1 while not playing their best hockey, the New York Islanders found their game, and so did Mathew Barzal. That means trouble for the Boston Bruins, who made it possible for the Islanders to draw the series twice after a dominant win at the start of the series.
Boston has to win on Monday evening in order not to have to be eliminated on Wednesday at the Nassau Coliseum. The pressure is on the home team but the Bruins should be optimistic about their chances, BetMGM lists them as -185 favorites on the money line in Game 5. But is there any value in putting $ 1.85 to win $ 1 here? I would have said yes a week ago, but now I’m not as confident in my previous assessment of the series for several reasons.
In my opinion, the Islanders improved their play in the neutral zone and got into the offensive zone more effectively than at the beginning of the series. This, along with their ability to force the Bruins’ best shooters into the perimeter, is a big reason the series is tied.
The Islanders were terrible in the series opener, and they still haven’t dominated a game like this, how the Bruins did this game, but the three inclines that followed were very even. Sure, the Bruins had a pretty significant advantage in attempting a five-on-five game, but outside of the first game where they kept the Islanders down to only 13 chances while scoring 38 themselves, the Islanders kept it tight. They have had 47 percent of five-on-five scoring chances since then, according to the hockey statistics website Natural Stat Trick.
Looking at the games through the lens of expected goals from Evolving Hockey, it tells a similar story. Expected goal models assess each unblocked shot attempt based on a number of variables to determine the likelihood that a shot will hit the back of the net. The shot position is a big deal, but the shot type and angle are also taken into account. Some models even take into account things like rebounds and whether a shot was in a rush.
At 5v5, the Bruins controlled more than 53 percent of the expected goals in the series, but that number is heavily skewed because the Islanders in the first Game were so bad. In Games 2-4, the Islanders scored about 53 percent of the expected goals. Of course, that has a lot to do with the way head coach Barry Despite cutting his lines on the home ice. Bruce Cassidy will be dictating Monday’s matchups.
Betting bettors should expect the Bruins to play some of their best hockey games of the series, but they have likely already played their best game. The Islanders are likely never to be as bad as they were when the series opened, and they’ve been pretty good ever since. From a numerical standpoint, I think the odds are fair as the Bruins were the better team over a larger selection of games that go back to the close of trade.
However, if we limit ourselves to data from this series and this series alone to use, we shouldn’t expect one of the teams in one category to have a big advantage over the other. If you decide which side you go, don’t think too much about it and take the dog at 165. Right now the Bruins are without two key defenders in Kevan Miller and Brandon Carlo, and goalkeeper Tuukka Rask is well known to act with excruciating injury. It is impossible to contest a high price with the home team here.
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