CM – Melbourne Renegades – Adelaide Strikers: Sixes line could be set too low for first game at Marvel

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Renegades and Strikers both look weak in the batting department, but Paul Krishnamurty says they are on a low line with overall in their opening game Defying sixes …

« A better plan to get with the batsmen is via the Total Sixes market, where the line is 9.5. Overs has won six of the last seven games on this one Bottom, with 11 or more hits on each of these occasions. « 

According to betting order, these are the two teams with the lowest probability of winning the title, with odds of 14.5 and 13.012 / 1 respectively. Although it is difficult to argue with both assessments, the hope at the beginning of a new season becomes eternal.

The Renegades have been bottom of the rankings for the past two years, both times by a clear margin. You have made some significant changes. After signing Melbourne Stars, Nic Maddinson will take over the captaincy from Aaron Finch, while David Saker returns to the role of head coach.

Two important signings are Reece Topley and Unmakt Chand, although the latter will miss this game. They are further weakened in the early stages by the absence of Shaun Marsh. To hold their own, you have to think that Sam Harvey and Finch (who survived a bad World Cup despite being the captain of the winners) put a lot of pressure on playing with the bat.

The strikers’ references are definitive think. They qualified fifth for the play-offs last season, finished third in the points table last year and only won the title in 2017/18.

In addition, they have an outstanding bowling attack – probably the one best in the competition. Rashid Khan remains unmatched in this format but was surpassed by Wes Agar and this year’s captain Peter Siddle in the wickets division last season.

Their problem, however, is a chronic lack of punching power. Alex Carey and Travis Head are lost to Ashe’s duty while Phil Salt is gone. Of those who remained, only Jake Weatherald and Jon Wells managed 200 runs in last year’s series. However, if Harry Neilsen and Matthew Short can move up, they have the attack to defend even small sums of money. Signing George Garton will improve the bottom line.

After so many months of waiting for the roll to come before even considering betting on the odds, the Big Bash brings some relief. At Marvel Stadium, where the last 20 games have been shared by defenders and pursuers, ten at a time, there is no apparent bias.

Of those 20 games, six produced a first innings score of 170 or more and five were under 140 Of the last eleven, only one was under 150. Given that we have a new seat for this first game of the season, if both teams score 160 there is a tendency to win 9/4. However, the statistics do not support this and both sides are weakened. I suspect 160 would be a winning amount.

A better plan to get with the batsmen is via the Total Sixes market where the line is 9.5. ‘Overs’ won six of the last seven games on the course, with 11 or more hits on each of those occasions.

The favorite for each team in their top team runscorer market is improving – Weatherald to 9/4 for Strikers, Sam Harvey on 13/5 for Renegades. A fair offer, but not my type of bet as regular readers of my cricket analysis know.

When looking for a tagline in that order, Jack Prestwidge catches the eye at 50/1 for Renegades. He hit half a dozen max in six games last year, with a high of 33. That kind of score often wins this market. He’ll likely come around eight.

Likewise, at around eight for Strikers, take 100/1 over Daniel Worrall. Last year it didn’t even reach 62. With these odds, we only need one to land all season for a total win.

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Back Over 9.5 Sixes 3u @ 1,834 / 5Back Jack Prestwidge for Top Renegades Bat 0.2u @ 51,050 / 1Back Daniel Worrall for Top Strikers Bat 0.1u @ 101.0100 / 1

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