The Milwaukee Brewers (51-34) and the New York Mets (43-37) face each other in a series of three games between the division’s leading teams at Citi Field. The series starts at 7:10 p.m. ET game Monday. Let’s analyze the BetMGM Sportsbook lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Brandon Woodruff is the planned starting pitcher for the Brewers. In 16 starts this season, Woodruff is 7-3 with 1.87 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10.6 K / 9 and 2.1 BB / 9 in 101 IP.
Woodruff has an average of 0.203 at Balls in play and a rate of 86.6% on the base, but he still publishes the best expected ERA numbers of his career. This is mainly because the best walks per nine innings in the career are achieved and the Lefty bats are kept in check (.420 OPS allowed).
RHP Tylor Megill is the planned starting pitcher for the Mets. Megill is a 25 year old rookie making his third start. In 9 1/3 IP he has a 4.82 ERA and has run four while beating 12.
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MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; Visit USA TODAY Sports for a full list. The odds were last updated at 10:47 AM ET.
The Brewers have been a good road team so far. They have made a run difference of 39 when they went 25-16 away.
On their last 19 street slopes, the Brewers are 14-5. Milwaukee comes from a four-game set in Pittsburgh, where they won 3 out of 4 from the Pirates but had an 11-game winning streak on Sunday.
The Mets win 2 out of 3 games from their Crosstown rivals at the Yankee Stage. They scored 18 runs in the two wins, which marked a departure from the offensive problems the club suffered for most of the 2021 season.
Despite recent offensive successes, New York has only had 3, since June 17, 1 runs per game recorded on a 0.625 OPS. The Mets are 8-12 above this distance.
The Brewers are skinny here, but consider breaking the expected total a little and putting Milwaukee on the running line.
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The Mets have had an emotional weekend and their bullpen is in the fatigue zone.
New York hits more of the left than most clubs. Woodruff is good with left-handers; also the Milwaukee Bullpen.
The Over is a nice opponent here. Represent Woodruff as a 3.00 ERA hurler and fade the Megill Mets bullpen combo (or at least a big enough question mark).
The offensive numbers for both clubs are compared to theirs Statcast contact quality numbers (and the Brewers have an OPS of 0.815 in their last 14 games) undercooked.
Citi Field is a run-suppressing park, but an 11 mph breeze from the left center is on the forecast and counts as suitable counterweight.
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