After rallying to level a two-goal deficit, the New York Islanders prevented the elimination on Wednesday with a 3-2 win in extra time. The teams will rule the series Friday night in Tampa, Florida, and the Lightning could do without their top striker Nikita Kucherov after suffering an apparent upper body injury after receiving a cross-check from Scott Mayfield, who went unsolicited by the Officials.
Kucherov’s absence would be a huge loss to the Lightning, but this is a strong team capable of winning an important game without the services of its leading point producer.
DraftKings lists the Lightning as Friday -175 moneyline favorites, but it’s hard to justify placing the favorite at a price not too far from the game 5 closing price, which was around -185. Kucherov has scored 27 points in 17 playoff games and bettors should be careful here. If he plays, he plays injured, but the Lightning would be worth a bet on the money line of -175 or better (they’re -165 at BetMGM in New Jersey). However, if he’s unable to adjust, bettors should know that there isn’t really a bargain here unless they see a substantial shift in the odds.
In my estimation, the Lightning should win the game about 65 percent of the time with Kucherov in the line-up, which corresponds to odds of -185. Without it, your chances drop to around 61 percent, or -155. That also means there won’t be a point where I would support the Islanders here, because their chances of winning are around 39 percent or 155 at best and DraftKings currently lists them at 148 on the moneyline (135 at BetMGM). . Odds makers should feel good about how they rated the major markets, and that’s not a good sign for bettors. So how should you approach this game?
Look for instances where the odds makers have not adjusted properly when Kucherov is not on the lineup. Player props would be a good place to start. Anthony Cirelli did a good job replacing Kucherov at the top and scoring a goal and assist on Wednesday. While the former (a goal) might not be a good bet to get back in Game 7, the latter (an assist) is a bit easier to achieve when Brayden Point, who has scored goals in nine straight games, is on his line.
Yanni Gourde is another player who would benefit from moving up the line-up and there is an opportunity for bettors to take advantage of it. Gourde will be promoted when Kucherov is not in the line-up and he is flanked by Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn.
Before Game 6, bettors were able to bet -161 at BetMGM on Gourde to score over 1.5 shots on goal, a feat he has done in 12 of 17 playoff games this season. He has averaged two shots on goal per game in the playoffs but has scored 2.5 times per game in that series.
There is neither smoke nor mirrors here. If bettors find similar odds on Game 7, that’s a great bet. If Kucherov is not playing and weather can be close to -161 on Gourde to score more than 1.5 shots on goal, you can be sure that the odds makers have not made the right adjustments.
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