CM – Reds vs. Twins: Fade Starting Pitching on Tuesday afternoon


Two offensively charged teams with less than ideal pitching situations continue their interleague match as the only game on Tuesday.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Minnesota Twins each finished 4th in their respective Central Divisions, the started on Monday with this short set of two games, but both have different paths forward. They compete for over .500 in their last 10 games every Tuesday and try to maintain solid play.

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One of the positives for the Reds was pitcher Wade Miley. The left-hander has erased a miserable 2020 and returned to his 2018-19 numbers.

Miley’s biggest improvement is reducing walks, which the twins don’t like to do (7.9% home walking rate versus left-handed people ). His Road ERA of 3.09 is higher than home, but that’s skewed by a eight run in Colorado.

Miley survived on a .254 BABIP and failed to hit 31% hard hit rate and 5.8% barrels Percentage go.

The southpaw can get a lot of help from his teammates at the plate, but there are concerns when they go away against right-handed players. Like many street offenses, the Reds have fought right-handed pitching and are in the midfield despite 89 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC). Cincinnati also brings the ball into play a lot, running only 7.6% of the time and striking 20.7% of the time.

Minnesota’s defense is rated 26th on Defensive WAR, a reason, despite a mediocre effort, one of the most to like better attacks in baseball.

The Twins offensive is good against Miley. They are in the top 10 on average, Slugging, OPS, ISO, Home Run-to-Fly Ball Ratio, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), Weighted On Base Average (wOBA), and wRC against left-handers at home. Nelson Cruz entered the series with a .686 slugging percentage against southpaw.

Bailey Ober was solid in four starts, despite averaging barely over four innings per outing. He has hit 11.12 strokes per nine and does a difficult job against an offense that doesn’t swing and miss often. It was also impressive for Ober to hold a 3.71 ERA with a roller coaster ride all the way down to a 4.67 Expected ERA (xERA) only to drop to 3.30 Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP).

Ober will get as many innings as he can handle on Tuesday and in the future as the twins bet he will be part of their rotation in the future. Minnesota as a whole has a 2.7 pitching fWAR, the third worst in baseball.

I don’t think it’s range to say that both offenses in a day game can go their positive / negative paths in a day game after a night game. Both are below .500 in daily games, a positive sign for overweather like me.

Since the moneyline odds are a dead race, I like to bet over 9.5 runs. Neither team has a track record when the sun is shining and were mild to major disappointments in 2021.

Betting on the offense is the way to kick your back. There is more to be won with no preference for either team.

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