CM – Tropical cyclones in Asia could double their destructive power under a warming climate, new research shows

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November 30, 2021

from Frontiers

In a new article published in Frontiers in Earth Science, researchers examined how the destructive power of tropical cyclones changed between 1979 (below) and 2016 in the eastern and southeastern regions of Asia, with a remarkable increase in the effects of tropical cyclones Inland cyclones in the regions studied. Future projections showed that by the end of the 21st

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters. They harbor several dangers such as heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges, which alone or in combination can cause property damage and endanger life. Over the past 50 years, tropical cyclones have caused almost 780,000 lives and US $ 1,408 billion in economic damage.

“The extreme precipitation (> 150 mm / h) in Zhengzhou, China in June 2021 was caused by Typhoon In -fa and Typhoon Cempaka, which carried copious amounts of water vapor to Henan Province, China. The remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021 caused torrential rain in New York. Both disasters caused enormous economic and human losses, « said Dr. Chi-Yung Tam of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Over the past few decades, research has shown an increase in severe tropical cyclones, particularly over East and Southeast Asian countries . Climate models suggest that the climate crisis could affect tropical cyclones. Other research has also shown that ocean warming could increase its strength. If a cyclone gains strength as it hits the mainland, it extends its inland distance increases its destructive power.

« Tropical storms can also affect inland regions, and we should pay more attention to this, especially in the climate crisis, » Tam continues.

But research on the exact effects of the climate crisis on hurricanes is still rare and little is known about its future impact , will have more intense tropical cyclones over land.

Tam and his colleagues wanted to investigate the effects of the tropical cyclone WNP on inland regions of East and Southeast Asia. To do this, they first analyzed historical tropical cyclone data from the last four decades (between 1979 and 2016). They then projected future changes in cyclone-related effects on these regions as part of the Representative Path of Concentration 8.5.

They found that there has been a dramatic increase in the effects of tropical cyclones in the WNP on inland East and Southeast Asian regions since 1979. They observed stronger cyclones that lasted longer and penetrated further inland.

Overall, the cyclones falling on land lasted between two and nine hours longer and penetrated 30 to 190 km further inland (an average of 100 km). The most significant increase in inland tropical cyclone impacts occurred over Hanoi in Vietnam and the southern China region.

The researchers predict that the average tropical cyclone landing intensity compared to the current period (between 1979 and 2003) by the end of the 21. while they last 4.9 hours longer (56%) and drive 92.4 km further inland (50%). These results show that tropical cyclones will almost double their destructive power over inland Asian regions. « The climate crisis is likely to continue the increasing trend of typhoons and their inland impact based on high-resolution climate model projections of the climate crisis, » said Tam.

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