CM – Vegas gives the wilderness too much respect


With just four points between the Minnesota Wild and the West Divisions leading the Vegas Golden Knights, bettors can expect a playoff atmosphere when the teams meet in the North Star State Monday and Wednesday. On the surface, these are two of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden Knights lost 9-1 in their last 10 while the Savages set a record of 8-2. Hence, many bettors will view this matchup as a pick-em or game where the street team should be a short favorite. However, it is imperative that the weather go deeper as results-based analyzes often miss the mark.

The Golden Knights have been rolling across teams in an impressive way since the beginning of April. According to Evolving Hockey, the team managed to maintain a territorial lead over the competition, averaging 67 shot attempts while only 55 were allowed. Meanwhile, the Wild’s victories are not backed by strong underlying numbers. In contrast to the Golden Knights, the savages were often outbid, especially with uniform strength, with which they could only achieve an average of 45 percent of the shot attempts. The Wild have left their opponents behind only six times in the last 15 games and only scored 49 percent of the expected goals.

Of course, bettors should also take the season series into account. This back-to-back set forms the last two meetings between the teams. The Wild have won four out of six games directly against the Golden Knights, including the last two games that took place a month ago. In fact, the Wild are the only team in the division that the Golden Knights haven’t set a winning record against, but the games have been close, both in terms of scores and the competitive level of both teams. Given that the Golden Knights were so much more dominant than the Savages on this final leg of the game, now is the time to buy a matchup that we saw very well in the playoffs.

At DraftKings, those mean Opening odds of -121 mean that the Golden Knights will win the game about 55 percent of the time. The last time the two teams met in Vegas, the home team had a price of -160, or 61.5 percent. This is an adjustment of around 7 percent, which is way too much for a simple change of venue. If this game had taken place a month ago, the odds would have been a little more reasonable. The NHL is a league of ups and downs. In order to find value bets in the hockey markets, many bettors often feel like they are catching a falling knife.

However, the real goal is to catch falling prices. To the untrained eye, both teams are shooting at all cylinders due to their recent record, but keen hockey bettors can tell the difference between a legitimate competitor in the Vegas Golden Knights and a Wild team that doesn’t have the same level of superstar talent. In my estimation, the Golden Knights should carry a price of -145 as they will win the game an average of 59 percent of the time, and I’d happily put down to -140 as I adjust my stake based on my perception edge. At -121 weather get a bargain.

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