CM – Violent conflicts exacerbated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa – Nature Food

0

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited CSS support. Receive
For the best experience, we recommend using a more recent browser (or the compatibility mode in
Internet Explorer). In the meantime, we are displaying the site without styles for continued support
and JavaScript.

Natural food

(2021) Quote this article

Conflict, droughts and locusts are the main concerns of food security in Africa, but the relative importance and spatiotemporal scale of the crises that result from each hazard are poorly described. Here we use continuous, subnational data to show that the increase in food insecurity that began in sub-Saharan Africa in 2014 is due to an increase in violent conflicts, particularly in South Sudan and Nigeria. Although drought remains one of the main triggers of food crises, the prevalence of drought-related crises did not increase between 2009 and 2018. When exposed to drought, shepherds experienced more widespread, severe, and prolonged food crises than people living in agricultural areas. Food insecurity remained elevated in pastoral regions for 2 years after a drought, while agricultural regions returned to pre-drought food security levels in ~ 12 months. The few confirmed famines during the 2009-2018 period coincided with both conflict and drought, while locusts had little impact on food security during this period.

All data used in this research are from those listed in Table 1 Sources publicly available.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019: Protecting Against Economic Slowdowns and Downturns (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, 2019).

Salih, AA, Baraibar, M ., Mwangi, KK & Artan, G. Climate Change and Locust Outbreak in East Africa. Nat. Climb. Change 10, 584â ???? 585 (2020).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Effects of desert locust infestation on household livelihoods and food security in Ethiopia (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2020).

Maxwell, D. & Hailey, P. The Politics of Information and Analysis in Famines and Extreme Emergencies : Synthesis of Findings from Six Case Studies (Feinstein International Center, 2020).

Krishnamurthy, PK, Choularton, RJ & Kareiva, P. Dealing with Uncertainty in Famine Predictions: How Complex Events the Early Warning Capabilities for Food Security in the Horn of Africa influence. Globe. Food sec. 26, 100374 (2020).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Majid, N. & McDowell, S. Hidden Dimensions of Somalia’s Famine. Globe. Food sec. 1, 36â ???? 42 (2012).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Maxwell, D., Majid, N., Adan, G., Abdirahman, K. & Kim, JJ Confronting the Famine: Somali Experiences in the 2011 Famine. Food Policy 65, 63â ???? 73 ( 2016).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Maxwell, D., Khalif, A., Hailey, P. & Checchi, F. Determining Famine: Multidimensional Analysis for the 21st Century. Food Policy 92, 1â ???? 13 (2020).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Mohamed, A. A. Food Security Situation in Ethiopia: A Review Study. Int. J. Health Economist. Directive 2, 86â ???? 96 (2017).

Google Scholar®

Ayinde, I. A., Otekunrin, O. A., Akinbode, S. O. & Otekunrin, O. A. Food Security in Nigeria: Impulses for Growth and Development. J. Agric. Econom. 6, 800â ???? 813 (2020).

Google Scholar®

Otekunrin, O.A., Otekunrin, O.A., Momoh, S. & Ayinde, I.A. How far has Africa gone in achieving the zero hunger goal? Evidence from Nigeria. Globe. Food sec. 22, 1â ???? 12 (2019).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Azad, M., Crawford, EE & Kaila, HK Conflict and Violence in Nigeria: Results from the North East, North Central and South South Zones (World Bank, 2018).

Young, H., Jaspers , S., Brown, R., Frize, J. & Khogali, H. Food-Security Assessments in Emergencies: A Livelihoods Approach (Overseas Development Institute, 2001).

Technical Manual Version 3.0: Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Choices (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Global Partners, 2019).

de Perez, EC et al. From Rain to Famine: Assessing the Use of Precipitation Observations and Seasonal Forecasts in Predicting Food Insecurity in East Africa. Food sec. 11, 57â ???? 68 (2019).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Verpoorten, M. Managing Households in Times of War and Peace: Cattle Sales in Rwanda, 1991-2001. J. Dev. Economics. 88, 67 ???? 86 (2009).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Helman, D., Zaitchik, B.F. & Funk, C. Climate has opposing direct and indirect effects on armed conflict. Vicinity. Res. Lette. 15, 104017 (2020).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Buhaug, H., Benjaminsen, T. A., Sjaastad, E. & Theisen, O. M. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Vicinity. Res. Lette. 10, 125015 (2015).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Von Uexkull, N. Persistent drought, vulnerability, and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa. Polit. Geogr. No. 43, 16â ???? 26 (2014).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Brück, T. & dâ ???? Errico, M. Food Security and Violent Conflict: Introduction to the Special. Weltabw.117, 167â ???? 171 (2019).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Martin-Shields, C. P. & Stojetz, W. Food Security and Conflict: Empirical Challenges and Future Opportunities for Research and Policy Making on Food Security and Conflict. World Dev. 119, 150â ???? 164 (2019).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Justino, P. Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilienz and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict HiCN Working Paper 132 (Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, 2012).

Arias, MA, Ibà ± ez, AM & Zambrano, A. Agricultural production in the midst of conflict: separating the effects of conflict into shock and uncertainty. World Dev. 119, 165â ???? 184 (2019).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Maxwell, D. G. & Majid, N. Famine in Somalia: Competing Imperatives, Collective Failures, 2011-12 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2016).

Anderson, W. et al. On the way to an integrated soil moisture drought monitor for East Africa. Hydrol. Earth Sys. Science 16, 2893 ???? 2913 (2012).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Funk, C. et al. Investigating the role of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Indo-Pacific in recent African droughts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Social 144, 360â ???? 383 (2018).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Trends in acute food insecurity, 2013–2018: Five-year conflict in South Sudan leads to a significant increase in the need for assistance and the risk of hunger (Famine Early Warning System Network, 2018); https://fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan/special-report/december-2018

Dihel, NC & Pape, UJ South Sudanâ ???? Economic Update: Taming the Tides of High Inflation- Policy Options (World Bank, 2017).

Anna, C. & Lederer, E. US calls on Ethiopia’s Prime Minister to allow « immediately »? Help Tigray. The Washington Post (February 4, 2021); https://apnews.com/article/kenya-ethiopia-united-nations-eritrea-e183d672de7da4c9bf6fae7d24f3a3e0

Osman, A., Olesambu, E. & Balfroid, C. Pastoralism in Africaâ ?? s Drylands: Reducing Risks, Addressing vulnerability and strengthening resilience (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2018).

Hein, L., Metzger, MJ & Leemans, R. The local effects of climate change in Ferlo, Western Sahel. Climb. Change 93, 465 ???? 483 (2009).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Integration of herd dynamics into guideline document 6 on scenario development (Famine Early Warning System Network, 2018).

Hesse, C. & Cotula, L. Climate change and pastoralists: Investing in people to respond to adversity ( IIED, 2006).

Lesnoff, M., Corniaux, C. & Hiernaux, P. Sensitivity analysis of the recovery dynamics of a cattle population after drought in the Sahel. Eco. Model. 232, 28â ???? 39 (2012).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

White, C. Herd Reconstitution: The Role of Credit Among Wodaabe Shepherds in Central Niger. Comb. Anthropol. 9, 30 ???? 42 (1984).

Google Scholar®

Ahmed, A. G. M., Azeze, A., Babiker, M. & Tsegaye, D. Post Dürre Recovery Strategies Among the Pastoral Households in the Horn of Africa: A Review (OSSREA, 2002).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Raleigh, C. Political marginalization, climate change and conflict in the African Sahel countries. Int. Breed. Rev. 12, 69 ???? 86 (2010).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Smith, K., Barrett, C. B. & Box, P. W. Participatory Risk Mapping for Targeted Research and Support: Using an East African Shepherd Example. World Dev. 28, 1945 ???? 1959 (2000).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Keen, D. et al. The Benefits of Famine: A Famine Political Economy and Aid in Southwest Sudan 1983-89 (James Currey, 2008).

CAS
Article
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Martens, B. et al. Gleam v3: satellite-based land evaporation and soil moisture in the root zone. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 1903 ???? 1925 (2017).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

Funk, C. et al. The climate endangers infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for the monitoring of extremes. Science Data 2, 150066 (2015).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Didan, K. Mod13q1 MODIS / TERRA vegetation indices 16 days l3 Global 250m Sin Grid v006. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC 10 (NASA, 2015).

Young, H. & Jaspars, S. Review of Nutrition and Mortality Indicators for the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC): Reference Levels and Decision-Making (Inter -Agency Standing Committee Nutrition Cluster and ECHO, 2009).

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification: Technical Manual Version 2.0: Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security Decisions (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2012).

Raleigh, C ., Linke, A., Hegre, H. & Karlsen, J. Introduction to ACLED: an armed conflict site and an incident record: special data function. J. Friedensres. 47, 651 ???? 660 (2010).

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

ArticleÂ

Google Scholar®

Leyk, S. et al. The spatial distribution of the population: a review of large-scale rasterized population data products and their usability. Earth syst. Science Dates 11, 1385â ???? 1409 (2019).

ArticleÂ
ADSÂ

Google Scholar®

This project was supported by ACToday, a Columbia World Project. W.A. thanks for funding from the Earth Institute Postdoctoral Fellow Program. R.S., S.M., E.I.-N., W.S., A.d.S. and F.C. were endorsed by NSF OIA 1934798.

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

You can also search for this author in
PubMed Google Scholar

W.A. designed the experiments. W.A., C.T., S.M., E.I.-N., R.S., W.S., F.C. and A.d.S. analyzed the data and wrote the paper. W.A., C.T., S.M., W.S., D.M. and K. M. contributed analytical tools and research materials.

Correspondence
Weston Anderson.

Peer Review Information – Nature Food thanks Chris Funk and the other anonymous reviewers for contributing to the peer review of this paper.

Editor’s note Springer Nature remains in regarding legal claims in published maps and institutional connections neutrally.

Anderson, W., Taylor, C., McDermid, S. et al. Between 2009 and 2019, a violent conflict exacerbated drought-related food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa.
Natural Food (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4

Advanced Search

Natural food (Nat Food)

ISSN 2662-1355 (online)

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter â ???? what’s important in science in your inbox every day, free of charge.

Similar title :
Warfare, not climate, driving Resurgent hunger in Africa
Study: Political violence, not climate change, to blame for rising hunger Hunger in Africa
Violent conflict aggravated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Warfare, not climate change, is driving resurgent hunger in Africa

Keywords:

Africa,Climate change,Hunger,Food security,Africa, Climate change, Hunger, Food security,,,,

Donnez votre avis et abonnez-vous pour plus d’infos

[gs-fb-comments]

[comment]

[supsystic-newsletter-form id=4]

Vidéo du jour: