While the Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies on the final day of the regular season and reached number 8 in this week’s play-in tournament, Golden State may have been disappointed with another result.
By beating the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday, the Minnesota Timberwolves improved to 23-49 to set the sixth worst record in the league and break a tie for the fifth best odds in the NBA draft lottery.
Owning Minnesota’s top-three first-round protection, the Warriors had an incentive to root the Timberwolves to lose and increase the odds of making Golden State a top pick in a critically acclaimed draft class by 2021 lands. Well, that selection may not be as valuable as it was a month ago.
After spending most of the season in the basement of the standings, Minnesota won 10 of its last 19 games, from the league’s worst record of 13-40 to the end of the season 23-49. This reduces the likelihood of the Warriors making a top 5 pick from 59.8% to just 9.6%.
The Warriors acquired the election in last season’s trading that sent D’Angelo Russell and others to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins and a future first-round election. That selection will be confirmed this year if it falls outside of the top 3 during the June 22nd lottery that will determine the final draft contract. If it doesn’t mediate, it will become unprotected in 2022.
Now there is a 27.6% chance the pick will fall into the top three, a 9.6% chance it will land in # 4, no chance for # 5 and a 62.8 % chance she will fall 6-10 between picks.
A selection outside the top 5 would be a disappointment for the warriors. It is widely believed that this design includes five talents who are transforming the franchise: Cade Cunningham from Oklahoma State, Evan Mobley from USC, Jalen Suggs from Gonzaga, and Jalen Green from G League Ignite and Jonathan Kuminga.
The next tier involves solid prospects, albeit certainly a lesser tier. Players like Scottie Barnes from the state of Florida, Corey Kispert from Gonzaga, Franz Wagner from Michigan, Keon Johnson from Tennessee and Davion Mitchell from Baylor are talented yet flawed.
That doesn’t mean a future all-star won’t emerge from those ranks. Every year, players outside the top 5 are selected who end up changing their franchise forecast. Miami Heat’s selection of Tyler Herro in 2019 helped make it through to the finals. the year before, the Denver Nuggets grabbed Michael Porter Jr., a light-off shooter, in 14th place; The election of Donovan Mitchell to # 13 in 2017 helped make Utah Jazz a championship contender.
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However, uncovering future stars in this field takes a lot of work and luck. For every Herro, Porter or Mitchell there is a Romeo Langford, Jerome Robinson and Frank Ntilikina – players who seem to miss their lottery pick status from the start.
The other factor to consider is the commercial value of the selection. A top 5 selection in this draft would add significant weight to a potential trading package. The value of the selection drops significantly as it falls to sixth place considering the top five players fall off the board.
In the meantime, the Warriors will keep their own selection for the first round this year. In November, Golden State traded a top 20 protected selection against Kelly Oubre Jr. for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Upon completion of the 39-33 season, the Warriors will select at 17 and will keep that selection regardless of post-season results.
Overall, the warriors have a good chance of having two picks in the top 17 of a strong draft. These are valuable assets for an organization looking to return to the title fight next season.
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