With such an open tournament at the US Women’s Open, there is a lot to talk about after the draw. Our tennis columnist Dan Weston discusses the brackets …
« In terms of numbers, I like Krejcikova (111% combined premium / return points earned on hard court in the last 12 months), even considering they were until recently was mainly known as a clay player. «
For Ashleigh Barty, even at best, such a good draw for the upcoming US Open was hardly realistic. Of the top 20 players in the market before the draw, only two – Belinda Bencic and Iga Swiatek – are in the top quarter with the Australian, so she has to be happy with her way into the final stages.
We know that at WTA Grand Slams there are many players able to beat each other, but it is difficult to anticipate many players in the upper quarter testing Barty, who has dominated the last few events at Cincinnati and Wimbledon. Clara Tauson – who has great potential – is going to be an interesting test, but I think Tauson is at least a year away from challenging the best on a regular basis.
In the second quarter there are a number of players who will try to reach the final stage including Petra Kvitova, Paula Badosa, Maria Sakkari, Karolina Pliskova and Bianca Andreescu. Fitness for Kvitova and the current level are questionable, which is why it is as big as 46.045 / 1, but if the Czech can get close to her top form again, this price would be a very interesting offer. Pliskova has had some decent results lately, making it 19.5 for the shortest price in the overall market of any player in this category. Andreescu has tremendous advantages but has not shown consistent performance since returning from her long-term injury, losing six of her last eight games.
Naomi Osaka, who has already won twice at the venue, is the obvious favorite despite being in the had problems on the pitch for the last six months, while Elina Svitolina, Elina Rybakina and Angelique Kerber added her to the third round, as did Cori Gauff and Simona Halep. If Osaka was shorter than the 3,211 / 5 to win the third quarter it would be worth considering, in my opinion, given the bracket’s lack of shape over the past few months and the competitive nature of the bracket, and its price is up in the overall market also tends towards 8,615 / 2. It seems that the market has lost a bit of confidence in Osaka as a result of this move.
Finally, there is a free-for-all in the fourth quarter without any major favorites. Barbora Krejcikova, Victoria Azarenka, Danielle Collins, Garbine Muguruza, Ons Jabeur, Elise Mertens, and the group favorite, Aryna Sabalenka, will all be among those who value their chances of getting into the final stages, and numerically, I like Krejcikova (111% combined serve / return points earned on hard court in the last 12 months), even considering that until recently she was mostly known as a clay placer.
Although I like Krejcikova, I worry about how valuable it is now. It was backed at 19,018 / 1, which is pretty much the shortest price since market opening, and its quarterly price also looks meager at 4.3100 / 30 – Sabalenka is slightly shorter at 4.03 / 1 to win the quarter.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them made it to the semi-finals, but I’m not brave enough to support the shortened Krejcikova here.
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