Persistently high unemployment will be Queensland’s « Achilles’ heel » as it seeks economic recovery in 2021, while a March shutdown of JobKeeper will spark an uphill battle for tourism businesses to survive, according to a report released today.
It is predicted that Queensland will have the highest unemployment rate of any state or territory this fiscal year at 7.5 percent.
Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly business outlook continues to warn of China-enforced agriculture and coal bans forcing a desperate mess to find new markets for goods.
However, DAE chief economist Chris Richardson said it would have to be « severe political recovery » to fix the Queensland economy while border closings during the pandemic would continue to damage the tourism industry.
« Without addressing the structural problems in the economy that keep it high, a sustainable recovery will be more difficult for the state. »
Queensland’s projected unemployment rate for 2020-21 was 7.5 percent, compared to NSW 6.4 percent, Victoria and South Australia 6.9 percent, Tasmania 7.2 percent and WA 6.4 percent.
The Palaszczuk government would not set an employment target during the election campaign. Treasurer Cameron Dick said at the time that the LNP’s 5 percent unemployment target was « not worth the paper it is on ».
The national unemployment rate is currently 6.8 percent, while Queensland is 7.7 percent as of November 2020.
But Mr Richardson said the strong health response to coronavirus means companies have been able to open up and stay open on a wider scale.
« That brings states’ economic recovery a few steps ahead of some other parts of the country – and even more of the rest of the world, » he said.
He said the economy entered 2021 better than forecast, and gross domestic product will now grow 4.4 percent.
Opposition Treasury Department spokesman Jim Chalmers said while there were welcome signs of recovery, the report highlighted significant challenges to high unemployment.
« The Morrison administration should not and cannot declare victory while over two million Australians are either unemployed or short hours and wages are stagnating, » he said.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the country’s economic recovery was underway, aided by JobKeeper, which was supposed to be temporary and has already been extended for six months.
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