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We have news: you have given us the confidence to deliver three issues per week in 2021. You can expect each newsletter to be shorter, but with the same mission of connecting the people and communities that speak to the world. In the meantime, enjoy your break!
– An Allied Strategy for China – With Views From 10 Democracies, edited by Matthew Kroening and Jeffrey Cimmino of the Atlantic Council.
– 20 new realities in an upside down world by John Gramlich of the Pew Research Center.
– Top 10 Risks and Opportunities for the World in 2021, also from the Atlantic Council. Check out my discussion with Ret. Lt. . gene. . James Clapper and Ellen Laipson
You have to see it: Great view of the Concordia research station and our galaxy from the European Space Agency.
Buried under a foot of snow in New York, many of the kids in my neighborhood can only think of the imminent arrival of Santa Claus. But with a global climate summit in the rearview mirror and Vladimir Putin playing power politics again, it’s Arctic politics rather than reindeer that gets my attention this week.
The region that is home to four million people is now a stage for huge business opportunities, climate risks and even Huawei 5G power play. Despite its remoteness, the Arctic cannot avoid the cruelly secular Covid-19. Canada’s Nunavut was locked in November. 20, while Greenland stopped all flights over Christmas.
How to Prevent Coronavirus from Reversing Advances on AIDS: « No sector alone can defeat existential threats like coronavirus and AIDS, and collaboration is vital, » said Anne Finucane, vice chairwoman of Bank of America , and ONE Campaign President and CEO Gayle Smith. Read why companies have a responsibility in the fight against AIDS and how Bank of America is committed to a world free of AIDS through its partnership with (RED). .
According to new testimony, the warming of the atmosphere has profoundly changed the Arctic in just 15 years. The EU’s Arctic Special Envoy Michael Mann describes climate change as the region’s “clear and present threat”, while Rick Thoman, climate specialist at the University of Alaska, recently stated at a conference that the region “is in some way biologically changed that is hard to imagine a generation ago. « That’s because, on average, the Arctic is warming almost twice as quickly as the world. The remaining ice is newer, thinner and melts faster. The Arctic now has underground fires year round: Usually, dead moss (peat) burns, turning the peat from a carbon sink into a carbon problem.
Climate change as a national security and geopolitical problem: « The threat that truly exceeds all others is climate change, » Clapper, former director of national intelligence, told Global Translations. The current chairman of the Arctic Council, which brings together the world’s largest geopolitical actors with the world’s most popular middle power (Canada) and the Nordic countries,
Iceland agrees. And it is supported by Norway. While the Biden government will be critical of this view, there is one problem: Russia will take over the leadership of the Arctic Council in June.
ECONOMIC GAINERS FROM WARMING: Without changing trajectory, Canada and Russia will become the centers of the world’s optimal productive average temperatures as the world warms up. In contrast, everyone in the South will struggle with heat-related costs and lost productivity, while Canada can potentially double its wealth per person compared to a non-warming world.
Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin plays a long game in the Arctic and wins. Forget Stalin’s 5-year plans, Putin’s centuries-old plan is to turn Russia’s wild east – once impossible to farm – into a food basket for China, a replacement for the American Midwest. Trump’s trade war with China makes the Russian option all the more attractive, and Putin has made enough progress to boast: “We are now exporting more agricultural products than arms. “Russia is pushing the mining and infrastructure of Arctic coal, while practicing more frequently and militarizing the Arctic waters near Alaska. Here’s a great guide on how Russia is benefiting from Arctic warming, from ProPublica’s Abrahm Lustgarten.
USA: The Trump administration is rushing to secure oil drilling rights before President-elect Joe Biden takes office, but even these controversial efforts lag far behind Russia’s investments in coal and infrastructure.
Mike Pompeo asked in 2019, « Do we want the Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, full of militarization and competing territorial claims? » His response was defensive: military exercises, expansion of the Coast Guard and creation of a military coordinator for Arctic Affairs. The problems go deeper. Alaska Sen. . Dan Sullivan (R) lamented the lack of basics in 2019: “We really don’t have any strategic [arctic] port capabilities. Not that there are icebreaker ships that can be brought into the missing deep harbors.
While the Coast Guard won a large increase in funding in 2020, the operational U. . S.. . The icebreaker fleet counts for exactly one thing: less than tiny Estonia and inner Austria. By comparison, Russia has 34 and will keel its newest nuclear-powered icebreaker today. Canada has another 20 and China, excluding Arctic territory, has eight. Defense Financing Bill passed by Congress. 11 approved up to six new icebreakers but did not provide funding, and only one additional American Coast Guard icebreaker was commissioned.
Pompeo named professional diplomat James DeHart as government coordinator for the Arctic in July. Overall, however, there has been little work with America’s allies: The latest headlines in the President’s Arctic came in 2019 when President Trump’s impromptu offer to buy Greenland was resolutely rejected by Denmark. Other parts of the government have been slow to mobilize: the 21-member Arctic working group of Congress has not published any news since October 2016. The Senate Arctic Caucus, founded in 2015, appears to have two members.
Where will Biden take Arctic policy? Find out about a current panel from the Polar Institute. As Vice President, Joe Biden was preoccupied with Arctic policy through the end of his term, but his obligations as President are minimal. The biggest change noted will be throwing U. S.. . Weight behind climate change initiatives (John Kerry was Chair of the Arctic Council and Secretary of State). The newly appointed DeHart is expected to remain the government’s Arctic coordinator.
Arctic Council: Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson, chairman of the Arctic Council of Senior Arctic Officials, told Global Translations that his priority for 2021 is that « the Arctic states, together with indigenous leaders, will continue along the established course for peace, stability and Maintain constructive cooperation in the Arctic. « He hoped that young people would be interested in living in and supporting the region, as the focus is increasingly on green policies and sustainable development.
Arctic Infrastructure: The Wilson Center’s Polar Institute released a new Arctic Infrastructure inventory this month with 8. 000 projects published. Inspired by the World Economic Forum’s Arctic Investment Protocol, the inventory is designed to drive sustainable development.
Arctic climate migration: The cold north is no stranger to climate-induced migration – Greenland has a 5. 000 year history of abrupt human change. While many countries are disrupted by unstable migration policies and the cost of fortifying cities against the sea will rise in the coming decades, Russia has the least to lose. The booming east needs more farm workers, and nationwide fewer than two million people are at risk of the sea rising.
Small cities, big politics: Norway’s Kirkenes is 14 kilometers from the border with Russia and is now home to the northernmost Chinese festival in the world. The mutual interest is clear: Chinese companies have money and the Chinese state has a long-term vision for the Arctic, while Kirkenes is on the edge of the North Sea Route, a passage 40 percent shorter than routes through the heavy U.. . S.. . Naval Presence in the Strait of Malacca. With global warming, summer shipping traffic on this ice-filled route is increasing rapidly.
Tactic, Tactic: Expressing an interest in Chinese investments can also be a political tactic. When Greenland wanted to build two new airports but didn’t have enough cash, investments by the Chinese state infrastructure bank were an option. In the end after U. . S.. . Under pressure, the Danish government agreed to finance the airports instead. The same dynamic prevails in Kirkenes, where the Norwegian, Finnish and Estonian governments have studied the construction of various sections of what is known as an Arctic Corridor, including a rail link between Kirkenes and Rovaniemi in Finnish Lapland and an underwater tunnel between Helsinki and Tallinn. Estonia. The projects are not yet economically viable. The Chinese interest could ultimately postpone these European conclusions: a new white paper by the Norwegian government explicitly adds the development of northern Norway as a pillar of the country’s Arctic strategy. . Pål Riise, a resident of Kirkenes on a disability pension, told Isabella Borshoff from POLITICO that he was careful: « If you let the Chinese buy a stone . . . they will be here forever, « he said.
Indigenous Concerns: A recurring pattern in Arctic politics is the exclusion of the area’s indigenous people. Indigenous Sámi have been protesting the Arctic railroad plans for years.
Biden’s climate team: John Kerry is supplemented on the home front by the nominees Gina McCarthy, Biden’s election for head of domestic affairs, with New York official Ali Zaidi as her deputy. Others include Michael Regan, North Carolina’s top environmental protection agency, who heads the environmental protection agency, Jennifer Granholm, who is Secretary of Energy, Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N. M.. . ) as Secretary of the Interior and Pete Buttigieg as the face of Biden’s infrastructure investment spurt and Secretary of Transportation.
Read our full Global Tech Spotlight. This week I’m delving into the relative decline of Silicon Valley. Will it be the next Detroit as Paddy Cosgrave predicts? Will Rana Sarkar – Canada’s Consul General in Silicon Valley – manage to invade the talent of the Bay Area? And what about the EU’s efforts to fight the giants of the valley that Marietje Schaake and Eileen Donahoe believe have thrown away the trust they once enjoyed?
In the Silicon Valley Playbook on Shaping the New Draft of Digital Regulations in Europe, Google leads the way with 160 lobbying meetings, but the most notable trend is with the largest American companies arguing with each other in public.
Transatlantic AI blueprint: The EU has continued its policy of setting the agenda for AI, reports Melissa Heikkilä, POLITICO’s AI reporter. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced efforts to reach a transatlantic agreement on artificial intelligence that could set « a blueprint » for the world. Von der Leyen said that while the EU cannot grow in size or venture capital, its AI sector can be a global beacon “because our values come first. People come first. » The U. The National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) and its chairman, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, gave the U a similar call. S.. . government. On the 8th. December has the U. . S.. . The House of Representatives passed a non-binding resolution to create a national AI strategy, while NSCAI spokeswoman Tara Rigler said the two proposals “recognize the fundamental and urgent need for the U.. S.. . and EU work together. ”
The digital tax flexes Canada’s muscles: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has joined a number of countries signaling a readiness to introduce a national digital tax should an OECD-brokered global negotiation fall apart. An early sign Canada is poised to take more risks with a Biden administration next door.
Time for a T-12 club of tech-friendly democracies? Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, agrees. He told Global Translations that we are « likely » to the point where only a club can curb or exceed China’s technical ambitions. « China is one step ahead of the US in key areas such as facial and speech recognition, 5G technology, digital payments, quantum communications and the commercial drone market, » just as democracies have lost the will to collaborate. A new grouping could “regain the initiative in global technology competition, promote its preferred norms and values, and coordinate a unified response. ”
Fontaine believes that a “new international grouping” is needed to achieve these goals and that U. . S.. . Leadership is needed to achieve this. The G-7 is too small, the G-20 has authoritarian members, and NATO is too tightly focused on the military. However, adding countries like India, South Korea, Australia, Sweden, and Finland to the G-7 “could bring the right members together while bringing technology to a level commensurate with its importance, treating it not just as another niche problem, but as a key element of global competition. ”
Private sector involvement would be vital and could be modeled on APEC’s corporate advisory board. « The T-12 could also develop working groups and committees based on the multi-stakeholder model that bring together not only companies, but also civil society, government and research institutions, » said Fontaine. The next step: the transplantation of the T-12 « or any other group of progressive techno-democracies that one could dream of » on the interest of the Biden government in « creating a new multilateralism ». ”
JAPAN – SUGA’S HONEYMOON IS OVER: Morning Consult’s daily tracking of global regulatory approval shows that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s net approval fell 10 points last week and 33 points last month. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison saw net approval fall seven points, followed closely by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s six point decline.
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT: The World Economic Forum has released a special edition of its Global Competitiveness Report, which examines how countries are behaving on the path to recovery. While the WEF has paused its ranking of countries (2020 is too strange to allow fair comparisons), the forum argues that “Countries with advanced digital economies, strong social safety nets, and resilient health systems have been more effective at managing the impact of the pandemic. ”
The most digitized countries, including the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Estonia, and the US, have adapted best for working from home. Countries with robust economic safety nets such as Denmark, Finland, Norway, Austria, Luxembourg and Switzerland did the best to support those who could not work. The strong financial systems of Finland, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore have been the best contributors to keeping small businesses alive. In the health sector, countries with previous experience with coronavirus epidemics (e. G. , SARS) had better protocols and technological systems.
UNITED STATES – 38 STATE GOVERNORS FOR ELECTION IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS. It’s always election happy hour somewhere in America.
WTO – MINISTERIAL ASSEMBLY COULD BE SET BY DECEMBER 2021: According to WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell. The delay could delay agreements to curb fisheries subsidies that contribute to overfishing, global e-commerce rules and efforts to get the panel’s appeal forum back on track.
OECD – SECRETARY GENERAL RACE LATEST: Former Swedish EU Commissioner Cecilia Malmström launched her OECD leadership campaign this week in front of an audience in Washington hosted by Meridian International.
Malmström, one of the most popular candidates in a tight 10-person range, has been conducting tough trade and migration negotiations on behalf of the EU for 10 years, and neither a Swede nor a woman has led the OECD. Even so, their relations with the Central and Eastern European governments have been strained at times, and there are six other European candidates, a group that could cancel each other out in the race.
Malmstrom told Global Translations that she has negotiated with every OECD government and has the best experience “negotiating and listening to countries large and small and understanding the similarities and red lines everyone has in common. She said mobilizing the brains of OECD members was vital to the work: « The OECD is never better than its last report. « . Climate cooperation was an area « that we (OECD) absolutely have to include in China », but the transparent exchange of data would be a condition for this cooperation.
The candidates Malmström has to watch out for the most: Philipp Hildebrand, former central banker of Switzerland; Ulrik V. . Knudsen, Denmark’s climate-friendly OECD insider; and Kersti Kaljulaid, President of Estonia.
ICYMI: Watch the Global Translations session at the OECD 60th Anniversary Conference on Building a New Social Contract.
How to Prevent Coronavirus from Reversing Advances on AIDS: « No sector alone can defeat existential threats like coronavirus and AIDS, and collaboration is vital, » said Anne Finucane, vice chairwoman of Bank of America , and ONE Campaign President and CEO Gayle Smith. Read why companies have a responsibility in the fight against AIDS and how Bank of America is committed to a world free of AIDS through its partnership with (RED). .
READ LONG: Emmanuel Macron’s New Path: A look at how the French President – the least popular leader among the G20 countries – plans to win re-election in 2022. By Ronja Kempin, Dominik Rehbaum, for WP, the German Institute for International Affairs and Security.
Ambrose Dlamini, Prime Minister of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), died after testing positive for Covid-19. French President Emmanuel Macron also tested positive.
China’s moon mission (no astronauts) returned to Earth this week, delivering the first fresh batch of lunar material to researchers in 44 years.
THANKS to the editor Emily Cadei, Luiza Ch. Savage, Heidi Vogt, Nancy Scola, Zachery Bishop and Halley Toosi.
Russia, Vladimir Putin, climate change
World news – AU – Russia wins the long game in the Arctic
. . Associated title :
– Russia wins the arctic long game
– Save the Planet to Stop Putin! NYT Says Russia Could Dominate the Warming World – enough to wake Americans up. » . . .
– In Putin&’s 5-hour press conference, not a single word was about Climate Change or Arctic
Ref: https://www.politico.com