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New research by Australian analysts estimated that the true global incidence of COVID-19 is much higher than what has been reported..
Based on an analysis of the daily injuries and deaths reported in 15 countries, as well as the tests conducted, researchers found that infection rates between March and August were an average of 6. 2 times greater than reported.
The analysis also showed that Australia had the best level of detection among the 15 countries studied at the end of April, but the Australian infection rate may still have been five times higher than the figures reported at the end of August..
The research, published today in the Royal Society Open Science, was conducted by Australian researchers from Ikigai Research, the Australian National University (ANU) and the University of Melbourne.
Co-author Quentin Grafton, of ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy, said the study showed a significantly higher incidence of Australians compared to the official reported statistics.
“In Australia, our modeling shows that the actual rate of infected and recovered people at the end of August may have been five times higher than what has been reported.. Professor Grafton said in a press release that 48 percent of the population, or as many as 130,000 people, may have been infected..
“These findings raise serious questions about how we deal with all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, including the ongoing morbidity and lifelong health impacts of infected people, how the lockdowns are implemented and managed, and how we make sure we are at the helm of this pandemic on a larger scale.
The study estimated the true number of infections by more than 800 million people in 11 European countries, in addition to Australia, Canada, South Korea and the United States of America.
The analysis found that 8 percent of the UK population is infected, or more than 5 percent. 4 million people.
To estimate the true number of infections, the researchers analyzed data on new daily infections and deaths reported by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, as well as cumulative tests made from data obtained from our world into the data.
Data analysis was performed using « backcasting, » which compares deaths related to COVID-19 with time from infection to symptoms, and time from symptoms to death..
“Simply put, we analyzed the stats on how many people have died from COVID-19 in a particular country, and then worked backwards to figure out how many people would have to be infected to reach that number of deaths,” Stephen Phipps of Ikigai Research said.
“Our method is a new and easy-to-use method for estimating the true infection rate wherever there is reliable data on the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19..
Professor Grafton said analyzing the data would be particularly useful for public health planning in areas where there is little ability to predict infection rates..
This service may contain material from France Press (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN, and BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced..
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Coronavirus, infection rate, research, Australia, Australian National University, University of Melbourne
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