World News – AU – When the US sneezes, we have a cold This is why Australia needs a Biden White House

It’s a bittersweet weekend to be Melburnian The second wave of the coronavirus is finally behind us Only one new infection was reported on Friday, bringing the 14-day moving average down to 55 This should mean a significant easing of restrictions on our movement from next week

But first, we have to reckon with the grim outcome of the lockout: an AFL grand final between two Victorian teams at Gabba de Brisbane on Saturday night, followed by a grand final of the rugby league played there where it was always expected, in Sydney on Sunday night The two events will remind Melbourne of its forced separation from the rest of the country since June

Before the pandemic, the big last week in Melbourne went like a carnival, culminating with a cheesy parade on Friday noon where players from both sides were led like royalty adorning the crowds The streets of the town was buzzing on Saturday morning, but then they emptied for the game itself One hundred thousand people sat in the stadium, while millions more watched the game in pubs or at home The party resumed after the siren , as the hangover returned in the night The Melbourne Cup compressed this weeklong ritual into a single afternoon, with the city standing still for the race itself

Lockdown has removed all parts of this shared experience This week the streets are empty, like every two weeks Stage four restrictions mean the big last night in Melbourne will be silent too The only noise you’re supposed to Hear are the Victoria Police drones that will patrol the suburbs to make sure every Neutral and Richmond fan is watching the game in their own home, with no visitors

There is some relief in Geelong, where city dwellers can watch the game with family or friends, and pubs will be open to socially distant fans. But Geelong fans living in Melbourne will be subject to the same rules as us, Richmond supporters We’ll be alone, screaming together on TV

Here are the details of the pandemic that will live on in our cultural memory long after we have forgotten who left the virus out of hotel quarantine

At the height of Victoria’s second wave, from early August to mid-September, the death toll was over 100 per week This week only one death was recorded on Monday It’s an extraordinary turnaround when country after country in Europe breaks new daily infection records and the US rushes to a third peak in its never-ending wave Melbourne, the capital of 5 million exhausted inhabitants, is the only city of its size in the world to have succeeded in suppressing a second wave of the virus.In any other setting, we could have celebrated this success

But the governments of the Commonwealth and Victoria refused us even The gunfire that lasted for months between the two sides destroyed any common sense of a national purpose The Victorian government certainly deserved criticism at the start of the second outbreak, as the Commonwealth government did over its failure to care for the elderly But that fight should have ended weeks ago Scott Morrison, no doubt aware he’s facing a federal election before Andrews goes to the polls, has toned down his own attacks But his ministers, including Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, have stepped up theirs

Frydenberg has an in-game politics skin With Melbourne and Victoria stranded, national economy faces double-dip recession Australia’s Bureau of Statistics reported this week that salaried jobs fell 09% between week ending September 19 and week ending October 3 The problem with this data is that Victoria and the rest of the country have lost jobs at about the same rate

Victoria accounts for 23% of the Australian economy and her gradual reintegration into our national life by Christmas should translate into some form of growth

But the Australian economy will not return to normal until we can safely reopen our borders to the rest of the world The budget assumes this cannot happen for at least another 18 months Net migration to overseas are expected to drop by 71,600 this fiscal year and 21,600 in 2021-2022 The last time we had more people leaving Australia than coming here in peacetime was in the 1930s

The budget also assumes that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available next year This may be too optimistic What the budget does not say, but should have, is that the presidential election American means as much, if not more, to our well-being

A coalition government would be too diplomatic to say these things out loud But the United States is to the world economy what Victoria is to Australia The United States accounted for just over 24% of the domestic product world gross in 2019 As long as it stays in recession, so do we

The United States has just 4% of the world’s population, but has so far recorded 20% of all deaths from COVID-19 – nearly 230,000 out of 114 million Our borders cannot open significantly as long as the virus continues to run unchecked in the United States

Australia needs Joe Biden to win US election for the same reason it needs Dan Andrews to suppress virus in Victoria Biden administration would take coronavirus seriously Donald Trump is campaigning on principle that enough Americans think this is all still a hoax and would prefer four more years of him at the center of their lives

Polls indicate Biden is on course for a comfortable win, maybe even a landslide Let’s assume for a moment they’re right and consider the implications for our economy

The virus will have another three months to burn Trump’s time before a handover in January It may be too late to bend the American curve by then But if Biden turns out to be a miracle worker, this would still mean that the global economy is slowing in the near term due to the withdrawal of US demand during its lockdown In other words, a double dip is looming for our economy, whoever wins

The story is certainly against Trump No incumbent has won a US presidential election held during a recession or depression There have been five in total before this year – in 1920, 1932, 1960, 1980 and 2008 – and the White House changed parties each time The only contest that was close was in 1960, when John Kennedy beat Richard Nixon The other four were landslides

Australia doesn’t quite match the consistency of the US experience Four elections have coincided with the recession, with a three-to-one score in favor of the opposition Governments of James Scullin, Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser were crushed in 1931, 1975 and 1983 respectivelyBut Robert Menzies survived the 1961 credit crunch election by a single seat despite his government’s loss of the popular vote

Bob Hawke and Paul Keating won elections held on either side of the recession of the early 1990s Hawke subsequently lost his leadership in the recession itself, in 1991, and Keating was defeated in a landslide in its aftermath in 1996

In Australia at least, the pandemic turns the recession rule on its political head Every federal, state and territorial leader here has received the highest marks of personal approval this year And confidence in democracy, which had reached record levels in 2019, also rebounded

Maintaining this new status quo through 2021 and beyond ultimately depends on forces beyond the control of our leaders

Our weekly newsletter features expert analysis of the White House race by our US correspondent Matthew Knott Sign up for the Sydney Morning Herald newsletter here, The Age’s here, Brisbane Times’ here and WAtoday is here

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