Paul Krishnamurty previews the first triple header at the end of the group stage and predicts that Perth will do its good Run to be maintained …
« That bet would have landed against 75% of Perth’s opponents this season, and Heat is not particularly strong in that division. »
Can anyone Perth Scorcher’s unstoppable march to a fourth Stop Big Bash titles? After a brilliant run of eight wins from nine mostly one-sided games, they have a top 2 place and thus two cracks in their sixth appearance in the final. Odds of 2.3611 / 8 for the title are unaffordable but fair.
In contrast, Heat was consistently against it. In order to reach the play-offs, they must at least win. Without getting the bonus point or winning by a large margin to keep the run rate above Strikers, qualifying would still depend on Hobart losing to the bottom Renegades.
When these two met last week, Scorchers were 59 runs ahead of easy winners. The formbook clearly indicates something similar and implies shorter chances of winning than the 1,738 / 11 currently available on the exchange.
The restriction includes the throw as always. The team that hits first has won 18 of the last 30 games (60%) in the Adelaide Oval. I’m not sure that will affect the odds much – it wasn’t in the Strikers v Thunder game on Saturday.
In any case, I plan to use my ‘25% rule ‘to help scorchers with higher odds. Set the order to 2.111 / 10.
Walk projections depend on which side bats appear first. Today’s match at the Adelaide Oval was shortened by rain, so I’ll exclude it from the numbers. 15 of the previous 29 1st innings produced over 170 total here and that was enough to win 11 times.
I don’t doubt scorchers can hit this target, although it will likely translate into short odds. I wouldn’t trust Heat to get 170 against the competition’s best bowling attack.
The most sixes Perth has conceded in one game this season are seven (twice). About 5.5 sees a big question about warmth. That bet would have landed against 75% of Perth’s opponents this season, and Heat isn’t particularly strong in that division.
Chris Lynn has hit 20 of their 69 highs and no one else has made more than eight contributions. Another measure of his importance is that he got the best results in two-thirds of all of his appearances. Remove it cheaply and heat can be restricted.
Given this record, it is difficult to argue with odds of 9/4 for top heat runscorers. That said, her top order is stronger now that Marnus Labuschagne has arrived. He’s a 13/5 chance.
Colin Munro scored the first goal for Scorchers in last week’s second leg with 82 of 54 points. He’s 3/1 to repeat, behind 11/4 favorite Jason Roy.
Order Perth Scorchers 5u @ 2,111 / 10Back Under 5.5 Brisbane Heat Sixes 6u @ 5/6
WE ARE A SAFE OPERATOR 18 gambleaware .co.uk
BETFAIR ® and the BETFAIR logo are registered trademarks of The Sporting Exchange Limited. © The Sporting Exchange Limited. All rights reserved.
For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission under license number 000-039561-R-319411-005. Correspondence address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority. License number: MGA / CL3 / 454/2008, March 17, 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Fixed Odds of Winning & multiple bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority. License number: MGA / CL2 / 294/2006, March 12, 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, license number: 000-039439-R-319330-007.
For questions about betting. Betfair send an email to [email protected]. If you have any further questions about Betfair, please contact the Helpdesk
Donnez votre avis et abonnez-vous pour plus d’infos
Vidéo du jour: