KYIV, Ukraine (AP) – Almost three months after the authoritarian Belarusian president was re-elected for a sixth term in a vote widely seen as rigged, protesters continue to take to the streets of Belarusian cities for demand his resignation in the most massive and sustained wave of protests the ex-Soviet nation has ever seen
As President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on mass arrests and intimidation tactics to retain power, the continued rallies have posed an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year reign
Authorities responded to protests sparked by August 9 elections which gave Lukashenko a landslide victory over Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya by unleashing a violent post-election crackdown Police dispersed peaceful protesters with stun grenades and rubber bullets, arrested thousands and beaten hundreds, which sparked a resurgence of protests and prompted the US and European Union to introduce sanctions against Belarusian officials
Tsikhanouskaya, who visited Lithuania after the vote under pressure from the authorities, this week called for a nationwide strike which has so far failed to shut down production at the industrial factories managed by the state forming the backbone of Belarusian economy But observers predict that economic turmoil linked to an increase in coronavirus infections will fuel discontent and gradually erode Lukashenko’s grip on power
By issuing an ultimatum to Lukashenko to resign by October 25 or in the face of a strike, Tsikhanouskaya succeeded in mobilizing and re-energizing his supporters after nearly three months of protests Around 200,000 demonstrators flooded the Belarusian capital Last Sunday, one of the biggest gatherings since the start of the protests Another massive demonstration is scheduled for Sunday
The authorities, meanwhile, have been keen to derail opposition efforts to organize strikes in the state’s main factories.They have proceeded methodically to arrest the organizers of the strike, threatening workers with layoffs for joining the action and deploying agents of the State Security Committee still known by its Soviet name KGB to monitor the situation in industrial factories
Lukashenko this week accused that « a terrorist war » is waged against the government « on certain fronts », accusing the largely peaceful protesters of « radicalization » Following his orders, more than 300 students risk being expelled from their universities for participating in demonstrations
As thousands of students and retirees took to the streets in Minsk to call for Lukashenko’s resignation, and some small business owners closed earlier this week, most state-owned enterprises have continued to function as usual
« The scared workers could not be expected to support the political demands of the opposition, » said Alexander Yaroshuk, leader of the Congress of Democratic Trade Unions, an association of independent trade unions “The opposition has only succeeded in creating hotbeds of strikes in the factories, which can already be considered a great achievement in the conditions where KGB officers have flooded the factory outlets and increased pressure on the strike organizing committees »
But Yaroshuk noted that while the nationwide strike did not materialize, economic stagnation is likely to cause unrest in the coming months.
« The worsening economic situation could turn isolated households into flames of a real strike », he declared
According to official statistics, Belarusian economy contracted by 13% in the first nine months of the year as the country’s main export markets shrank under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic
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Lukashenko’s cavalier rejection of the coronavirus threat has added to public frustration with the 66-year-old former state farm manager’s iron rule, helping fuel protests
Facing a rush for the national currency amid the unrest, the Belarusian government spent $ 1.5 billion, or about a fifth of the country’s hard currency reserves, to bolster the Belarusian ruble
« The economy is becoming Lukashenko’s main enemy, » said Minsk-based analyst Valery Karbalevich « Lukashenko needs money to pay the workers for their loyalty and the police for their brutality. His regime quickly runs out of cash and loses its support »
Faced with the opposition’s ultimatum and the threat of a national strike, Belarus on Thursday closed its borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to most visitors Lukashenko also reshuffled its senior officials this week, appointing Interior Minister Yuri Karayev and Security Council Secretary Valery Vakulchik as envoys to the westernmost regions of Grodno and Brest, on the border of Poland and lithuania
« Lukashenko cannot trust the local authorities in the western regions, and he must therefore entrust them with the responsibility of his security forces, » Viachorka said
Viachorka also argued that the reshuffle may reflect Lukashenko’s fear that his main ally and sponsor, Russia, could speak to his main lieutenants behind his back
The Kremlin backed Lukashenko amid Western pressure and provided a $ 5 billion loan to help refinance Belarus’ debt to Russia But many observers believe Moscow could quietly reach out to Russia. Lukashenko’s entourage on a possible successor as his authority crumbles
« Lukashenko has failed to end the protests in almost three months, which shows the extent of discontent in the country and pushes the Kremlin to seek new scenarios and partners in Belarus, » Karbalevich said « This opens a window of opportunity for the opposition to meet with Moscow, which until now has refused to speak to Tsikhanouskaya and his team »
Tsikhanouskaya’s adviser Viachorka said the opposition would continue to push for the creation of parallel power structures, « exacerbating Lukashenko’s crisis of legitimacy » and pushing him to start talks on a power transition
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
News from around the world – CA – Almost 3 months after the vote, protests in Belarus are still strong
