World News – CA – Lowe on Heat-Lakers: The five big numbers to watch in Game 5

Almost every competitive playoff strikes a strategic balance point All the big tweaks have been made Now it’s just a matter of rearranging the fringes: making tiny rotational adjustments; superimpose the counter on top of the counter for the sets that the opponent has smothered in their basic forms; vary the location of these sets It’s a search for any advantage that could last two possessions

Unless Goran Dragic returned, it was as if the NBA Finals had struck that balance in Game 4 The two optimized defenses Bam Adebayo started the game on Anthony Davis, leaving Jae Crowder to scramble with Dwight Howard Howard couldn’t exploit this size mismatch and struggled to chase Miami shooters pinging Adebayo’s picks. Frank Vogel started Markieff Morris in place of Howard in the second half

Davis defended Jimmy Butler and ducked under the screens – avoiding the switches and resulting mismatches that Butler brutalized in Miami’s Game 3 victory LeBron James has switched to Adebayo, allowing the Lakers to rock any Butler-Adebayo actionThe NBA Finals presented by YouTube TVABC and the ESPN app are your exclusive home for the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers !, Oct 9: Thu 5, 9 pm ETSun, Oct 11: Thu 6, 7:30 pm ET * Tue, Oct 13: Thu 7, 9 pm ET ** If necessary

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Fri, Oct 9: Thu 5, 9 pm ETSun, Oct 11: Thu 6, 7:30 pm ET * Tue, Oct 13: Thu 7, 9 pm ET *

Maybe we’ll see an unexpected wrinkle in Game 5 on Friday night Maybe the heat will dig up Derrick Jones Jr for a few minutes, or bring the zone defense back to a smaller dose The Lakers have the zone resolved, but it might work as a surprise to break MOON’s pace from We Saw a clip of the Kelly Olynyk-Adebayo couple, perhaps a way to limit the minutes three non-shooters (Butler, Adebayo and Andre Iguodala) share the floor. The zone also protects Olynyk in defense

But those don’t shake the ground beneath that Dragic series would return, but that seems unlikely since he tore his left plantar fascia in the first game

You can’t help but feel Dragic A touring and valiant career crescendo to this series Ten years ago, Dragic was a second-year turbocharged apprentice to Steve Nash with the Phoenix Suns when he offered us the ‘one of those organic, impossible to predict playoff moments you know to be special even as it’s happening: 23 points in the fourth quarterback of Game 3 of the conference semi-final against the San Antonio Spurs, Nash grinning from the bench as Phoenix took a 3-0 lead over his archnemesis

Dragic never returned to the conference finals – until this year He roamed Houston and then again in Phoenix after the Rockets acquired James Harden Dragic helped sabotage the tank plan of Phoenix in 2013-14, when he made his only All-NBA team He became unhappy; the Heat gave up a lot to save him The winning went up and down – until this playoffs, when Dragic played some of the best basketball of his life

You felt his absence throughout Game 4 With the Butler-Adebayo fulcrum blocked, Miami looked for the offense – relying mostly on Duncan Robinson and booming Tyler Herro The Lakers were ready

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With Dragic’s health uncertain, here are some big numbers to look at as Heat tries to extend this season

This is the number of transfers made by Butler as screener – quarterback – in Game 4, by far his highest total of the season, per Second Spectrum

The Heat scored at a gigantic pace when those transfers led straight to a shot, but their effectiveness plummeted with every pass, per Spectrum second

You can follow Heat’s thought process The Lakers canceled transfers from Adebayo by downsizing and attributing LeBron to Adebayo These sort of 3s, with Howard staying home instead of delving into the vision of Robinson, have disappeared:

(This is an extravagant photo Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have both relentlessly pursued Robinson)

LeBron can flash in Robinson’s airspace and come back to Adebayo LeBron and Davis have both been mindful of Adebayo slipping choices:

It’s a fantastic off-ball defense from Alex Caruso, who has been outstanding all season The Heat positioning Herro as the only shooter on the weak side there is no accident He aims to deter Caruso from Helping Adebayo Caruso helps anyway, but watch how he already leans towards Herro before Robinson lets go of his pass:

Meanwhile, Davis spun under screens castrated Butler’s pick-and-roll game Butler’s transfers were the natural next step

This action exploits the Lakers’ gambit against them.If Davis is willing to stay behind, the Heat could steal an open 3 by pivoting in a Butler transfer – forcing Davis to rush off the paint:

Davis was largely up to the task He jumped on Robinson when needed and sprinted towards Butler When Davis lingered on Robinson at the top, he was confident his teammates would cover him:

It’s a tenacious double rotation of LeBron – from Iguodala to Butler, then back to Iguodala

Notice Olynyk is in Adebayo’s place over there Miami played Iguodala, Butler and Adebayo together for eight minutes in this series – a small number, although Adebayo missed two games The Heat before the Finals was plus-62 in 90 playoff minutes with this line after being blitzed by 42 points in 45 regular season minutes like this – one of the most notable small-sample turnovers I can remember

Against the best defenses it gets harder to play more than two non-shooters at a time Miami faced two elite defenses to get here – the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks The Lakers are as fast as Boston, but bigger They change shape more easily than stubborn Bucks This might be the wrong streak for Butler-Iguodala-Adebayo But if he provides a spark once again, the heat could prolong things

The Heat will use tips to reinvigorate those transfer sets on Friday night Robinson could complete a semi-open 3 by heading for the transfer, then walking the sideline It’s a diaper – an add-on It could buy you one or two beautiful looks It won’t buy you three

You could see Miami at the end of Game 4 moving on to more complex actions – including some where Robinson threw Butler on the ball, then spun around in a pindown Adebayo Robinson could reverse course to another Adebayo screen and go from it to a Butler transfer More bodies, more variations, more chances for the Lakers to spoil Except they didn’t:

This is the Heat’s average points per possession on any trip when Herro performs a pick-and-roll with Butler as a screener, per Second Spectrum Even the Harlem Globetrotters couldn’t support this, at Unless they know Krusty the Clown had bet on the Washington generals and had an ax to grind with America’s most bitter artist

Miami has only performed the Herro-Butler dance 13 times, including five in Game 4 The Lakers will be prepared for it

The logic is the same: If Davis falls below the picks against Butler, use Butler as a screener – with a menacing bomber orchestrating things Dragic would be helpful here too Herro seemed comfortable as a replacement

Switch, and Butler eats against a MOON guard Send help and the Heat Hunt opens 3s:

That possession is the essence of top-level basketball in the playoffs – two smart, well-trained teams who know exactly what each other is doing The Lakers spin and swarm, forcing Butler to perform a wraparound aerial pass Adebayo must pretend and hit a banker lying against one of the best defenders in the league Big attack against a big defense You tip your cap

Miami to scrutinize abandonment strategy punishment methods One could be Butler trying the occasional wide open triple The Heat managed to set up flat screens for Butler in semi-transition – with the screener almost facing halfway off the pitch, making it difficult for the Lakers to say which direction Butler might go:

The Lakers also busted this for LeBron Here is Caruso throwing two Heat players at once:

That’s the Lakers’ offensive rebound rate He would have easily led the league in the regular season Adebayo’s presence had no impact on that number Meanwhile, Miami caught just 17% of their own failures – a brand that would have ranked last one mile

I wonder if Vogel could give Howard another start Howard was very close to a few first possessions to punish Crowder on the glass and with ducks

It might sound crazy, but if he’s up to it physically, I wonder if Adebayo could dare an intimidating ball against LeBron – both head-to-head and on the offensive glass. he can catch LeBron off guard or get him some cheap first fouls

The Lakers have 41 quick break points in four games, well below their regular season average of around 185 per game This may compromise the degree to which Miami has sniffed MOON’s transition attack According to Cleaning’s follow-up The Glass, three of the Lakers’ quietest half-dozen transition games have come in this series.It’s a big reason the Lakers didn’t get to the rim at nearly their normal pace (Half of their shots were 3s again in match 4)

The Heat has limited live ammunition turnovers If that changes, we’re probably done here Their low offensive bounce rate is tied to that; they fire almost everyone in transition defense One of the few times they didn’t – when they finished a possession with three players along the baseline – the Lakers pounced on a 4v3 that ended with Caldwell-Pope’s triple pivot to rise to five with 2:58 left in Game 4

This is the number of James-Davis pick-and-rolls the Lakers performed in Game 4 after using just three in total in the first three games, per Second Spectrum They didn’t really break the Miami defense; the Heat switch – Butler on Davis, Adebayo on LeBron – to prevent Davis from running freely on the rim

Lakers can still earn points Butler needs help against Davis in post after changes:

Remember: Davis keeps Butler on the other end After MOON stops, the Heat could be stuck with this game Davis can sprint into deep post-ups

Crowder has more experience defending big players – and against Davis I wonder if the Heat could experiment with Crowder on LeBron, which would leave Crowder on Davis after switchovers

The Lakers have also hosted screen-the-screener games – with Davis getting a pick in the paint before scolding on-screen for LeBron – to lift the open space for their stars

They used the sides of the floor in a smart way – including clearing one side for the games LeBron threw Caruso at:

This game fails, but LeBron’s lob is here If the heat packs the paint, the Lakers can move the action of the paint

LeBron did this on some of his pick-and-rolls with the Lakers guards – shielding them near the touchline and dashing to the corners, where there weren’t any defenders. nearby help (a tactic I mentioned before Game 4) Here’s Green about to click in a corner 3:

Davis did well when given the chance to run pick-and-roll Why not release a Davis-LeBron two-player game?

LeBron starred in Game 4 in off-ball separation actions with his guards – including Green here:

Here’s the gist of playoff basketball.This is all that’s left when two great teams – and the Heat have come out like this – exhaust their choice adjustments. Maybe a coach has a big surprise in store Otherwise, the Lakers will chase their 17th title against a fearless opponent ready for anything

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