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On November 3, the network’s framing of the electoral narrative could help alleviate nationwide chaos – or sow it

Was this really happening? Even Fox News Couldn’t Decide Just after 8:30 p.m. on November 8, 2016, Fox’s Chris Wallace attempted to express what the world was seeing « We’re all… at least I’m coming to the conclusion tonight – the conclusion is the wrong word – open to the possibility … « Wallace began: » Donald Trump could be the next President of the United States”Megyn Kelly laughed next to him It was an alien line, a string of words that didn’t fit together Wallace laughed too » I said it was just a possibility!  »

Most people use the word chaos to describe Trump’s election night But all of the major networks – including Fox News – were extremely cautious about declaring him the winner It was not until 2:40 a.m. Wednesday morning, when Fox presenter Bret Baier showed up on camera for his sweeping history monologue Pennsylvania, a blue state in every presidential election since 1992, had gone red Fox cut to a sea of ​​floating MAGA hats inside the Midtown Manhattan Hilton, just up the street from the studio The shock crept into Baier’s delivery: « What started as improbable, impossible, is now reality « 

This year, with an expected increase in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic, we may not know anything definitive for days as my colleague Barton Gellman wrote, there is a plan that Trump must never admit if there is any doubt about the result The television executives do not have a « gentleman’s agreement » on how to handle this scenario And in no network is the absence of a playbook more significant than at Fox News The way CNN and MSNBC are playing this election n doesn’t matter: Fox will control the narrative

Fox News’ influence on US politics remains unmatched (People Don’t Write Best-Selling Books About the Inner Workings of PBS) Its nighttime audience is one and a half times that of MSNBC and nearly double that of CNN After four years of « fake news » insults by the president and others, Fox enjoys a unique space: in the eyes of millions of Americans, and especially Trump voters, if you see it on Fox News, it must be true On November 3, the network’s framing of the story could help alleviate or wreak havoc nationwide

Instead of his usual prime-time block of Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham, Fox looks to his non-partisan presenters on election night to project objectivity Baier and Wallace will be back behind the office this year, and Martha MacCallum will be in Kelly’s shoes. There’s no reason to believe any of these hosts will turn a thug and preemptively shout “TRUMP WINS!” at 9 a.m. But it’s crucial that they get to their audience’s level on what’s really going on with the numbers Wallace has challenged Trump at various stages of his presidency, and will be the one to watch, tonally, as the state projections are spreading In July, Wallace asked the president if he would accept the results of the « Listen, you, I gotta see No, I’m not just gonna say yes I’m not gonna say no » election results. Trump replied. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Wednesday evening, Trump refused to engage in a peaceful transfer of power

Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and other swing states might be too close to call before midnight Pennsylvania results may not be available for days Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that postal votes will be accepted until 5 p.m. on November 6, three days after polling closes Postal voting appears to be the biggest variable this year, and when Fox presenters periodically hand the mic over to conservative commentators , viewers are likely to be struck by anti-voting propaganda in the mail

On Thursday, Carlson picked up on the alleged electoral fraud story « If all the votes are counted overnight, no one will have time to make decisions that throw out ballots they don’t like That’s why justices in Pennsylvania and Michigan want polling officers to count the votes for the WEEKS after election day, « Carlson said on his show » It will be a disaster, we know for sure. Later that night, Trump tweeted, « Democrats rig our 2020 election! » « Next to an excerpt from Carlson’s show

According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 61% of Republicans who only use radios and / or Fox News say mail-order fraud « is a major problem » (Trump voted by mail last month) Baier , Wallace and MacCallum could play straight, but other voices on Fox are not held to the same standards As the hours pass, Fox guests will be free to interpret any available election data and then define the information as favorable. to Trump Millions of Americans will hear these arguments, as will the President The Trump campaign may also influence talking points that broadcast it directly This has already happened on election night on Fox News

On November 6, 2012, Fox collaborator Karl Rove, former senior adviser to President George W Bush, refused to believe that Barack Obama had actually won Ohio Around 11:40 pm, nothing could change Rove’s opinion At one point, Megyn Kelly left the indoor set and went with a cameraman backstage at the network’s ‘decision-making office’ to show Rove – and the public – how the sausage is made: a room full of guys in crumpled suits crunching numbers on desktops Rove hasn’t been sold He spoke about upcoming votes from Hamilton County, Delaware County and other parts of Ohio Just before midnight, the Fox chyron under Rove read: Barack Obama re-elected President Rove still wasn’t convinced

« I’m just raising the question of our responsibility to call these things when it seems to ordinary Americans that we are not leading the pack for the sake of leading the pack, » said Rove

Eight years later, the demand at the heart of Rove’s « collapse » – patience – suddenly seems prescient. I called Rove last week and asked him about that night: what it felt to make everyone laugh?

« That’s not what they were saying off camera, » Rove told me with a sneer. « People were saying, » You’re right «  » He warmed up as we spoke « With all due respect that I owe to Megyn Kelly, she didn’t know if she should call Ohio or not If you showed her the voting patterns for Lucas County, she would say, « What is this? » (Fox News refused to make his talents available for this story Kelly, who is no longer on the network, also refused to speak)

Obama won Ohio by more than 100,000 votes and Rove’s on-air arguments were never justified Rove told me that Fox’s ruling office « had more information » than That night His information was inherently biased, coming straight from sources within the Romney campaign What will Rove’s equivalent say for 2020 on behalf of the Trump campaign? What if that person just refuses to back down?

“The networks work hot and cold,” said Rove “I was on the opposite side in 2004 We were, I think it was 114,000 votes in Ohio No network would call Ohio before, by example, 2:30 or 3 in the morning I found it atrocious, but on the other hand, it was responsible « 

I spent the last week reviewing old Fox News election broadcasts Rove’s 2012 tirade was made for convincing television, but his argument was a reasonable point: « All I’m saying is that we have a case where something was prematurely called « 

In the 2000 election, Fox chairman Roger Ailes hired George W Bush’s cousin John Prescott Ellis to lead Fox News decision-making office The network called the race for Bush just after 2 am with incomplete data Other networks quickly followed suit Vice President Al Gore conceded, then retracted his concession, leading to a week-long fight that ended in a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Bush If a similar chain of events were to occur this year, they would almost certainly benefit the President

Trump knows it Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said, « I think it will end up in the Supreme Court, and I think it’s very important that we have nine judges, and I think the system will go very fast »GOP senators have already started to say they will accept the outcome determined » by the courts « 

I asked the Biden campaign how they plan to react if various networks were not in sync when the race called in November « We expect all news outlets that determine election results to be ‘They are acting responsibly on the basis of the data and their duty to tell the truth to the American people, as they all did in the last presidential elections, « TJ Ducklo, Joe Biden’s national press secretary, said I asked the same question of the Trump campaign, which offered no answer

In a statement, Fox News said, « The integrity of our decision-making office is rock-solid. We have full confidence in each of the accomplished professionals who lead it and who are in charge of our voter analysis system. , who made his remarkable debut in the 2018 midterm elections We will organize this presidential election with care and precision, relying on data and figures « 

What is, I asked Rove, what is the responsibility of a channel like Fox News on election night?

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