The second of the three Serie A games on Saturday is the one to watch out for, says Tobias Gourlay
In Spain yesterday one penalty for Levante shortly before the break and one for Athletic Bilbao shortly after the break was enough to land our BTTS bet.
We have crossed the Mediterranean and are behind Italy have come to reach the sixth-placed duel between Lazio and Bologna. Lazio won the second leg 2-1 earlier this season. Last season that game ended 2-2. As Lazio have scored twice in each of their last five league visits at Renato Dell’Ara, we expect a few more goals this afternoon .
Under Sinisa Mihajlovic, the home games in Bologna have consistently scored goals: since March 2019, 24/36 have scored more than 2.5 goals. This season it’s 7/11. The hosts, underdogs in this case, have scored in 15 of their last 16 Serie A games at Dell’Ara and are now in a position to score a goal or two.
Under Simone Inzaghi, the Lazio road trips tend to lead to goals: since he took command at the beginning of the 2016/17 season, 57/87 have scored over 2.5 goals. Just like the long-term Bologna trend, this record suggests that over 2.5 goals should be 1.501 / 2 rather than 1.804 / 5. With Lazio having scored at least twice away in 6/9 lately, the favorites will appreciate their chances of breaking Bologna’s backline. We will use the generous prize for this duel to become another top scorer.
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