World news – Great Britain – The United States’ GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 under Biden and with the vaccine continuing to advance, says Goldman.

Economists led by Jan Hatzius published their latest US GDP forecast over the weekend, to update their near-term stimulus projections, COVID-19 vaccine development and economic reopening Goldman Sachs expects the recovery to ease after it GDP jumped 33% in the third quarter, but recent developments have slowed the timing of the full recovery

The team said the recent wave of coronavirus cases is the single most important factor affecting future growth and is already placing a significant burden on GDP. The US economy will now grow just 3% to 5% in the first quarter of 2021, half of the 7% expansion the bank had previously projected

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Nevertheless, the company sees the economy returning to pre-epidemic levels of production in the second quarter of next year Goldman said the government is preparing to pass another trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus to boost the recovery, either before the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on January 20 or in Early in his presidency

The team also has « persistent optimism » about getting the COVID-19 vaccine that received FDA approval before the end of the year and said rapid vaccination of high-risk populations would follow, and the wider population could receive the vaccine « within a few months » Extensive immunization could allow the United States to re-open and fully recover at a faster rate.

Goldman update arrived before Pfizer announced Monday that its experimental vaccine has a 90% efficacy rate in preventing COVID-19 in trial patients The news has pushed major stock indices to record highs Pfizer said it will soon apply for Emergency use permission from the Food and Drug Administration, which will allow it to speed up the rollout of its vaccine.

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Goldman’s forecast is slightly more optimistic than the Wall Street consensus. The bank’s call for 35% contraction in 2020 is 04 percentage points above the median estimate of 53% growth forecast for 2021 beats the 38% consensus forecast, and the 38% 2022 point estimate One percentage point above street forecasts, the team said that although it took more than a year, the coronavirus recession « has a V-shape much more than previous post-war cycles. »

“If we are right that a safe and effective vaccine will arrive soon, the economy should soon return to a strong recovery path,” Goldman said, adding that “a quick recovery again appears likely” if monetary and fiscal policy support continues to boost household income. / p>

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Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Coronavirus