Well, here I am writing from my new secret location in the Handicappers Witless Protection Program after I went 2-10 against the spread and on over / unders at the first Super Wild Card Weekend (Stupor Wild Card Weekend was rather so). In this city, the streets are all one-way, and most of them lead to a bad place.
Unlike NFL teams who get hammered and sent home in a playoff game, we forecasters are always moving still into the next week ahead, with a shot at redemption or a chance to be ashamed again.
The key is to try to learn from the mistakes – such as recognizing that the three underdogs on Saturday too these prices were all sharp games and to lay the points with the favorites … and that I was brave enough to say that I was « not part of Taylor Heinicke, just to see that the Washington quarterback delivers a solid and brave game. » / p> There was also some bad luck. I was on the sharp side with the Bears 10 at the Saints and they stop Drew Brees at the goal line, then go 99½ yards and score a touchdown with no time remaining, but lose by 12 because no extra points were attempted. And of course, if you’re already 2-8, the first game of the endgame is a snap over your quarterback’s head and a touchdown to the other team.
Having avoided the sharper sides last Saturday, I think so it is best to return to that strategy and live and die with it. The Rams scored 30 points against the Seahawks last week, despite Jared Goff and his damaged thumb replacing the injured John Wolford. The preponderance of the money rests with MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home and calmly against the damaged goods from LA (Aaron Donald didn’t look that hot even at the end of the game in Seattle).
With that in mind, has the line moves from Rams 7 to 6.5 in the other direction, signaling that LA is getting the respected money. Ron Torbert is also the referee, and street teams have covered 59 percent of his career games. The total fell by one point over the course of the week, which signals a good bit of money on this page. The Lambeau prediction isn’t bad (upper 20s-low 30s, 10-15 mph winds) but it might help the defense a little. The Rams are 12-5 to Under this season (Packers 9-7 to Over).
The Bills had a 14-point lead in the second half but couldn’t cover me against the Colts. Before that, they had played eight games in a row. The Ravens have covered their last seven games. When I started last week I thought the bills were real and would pose a real threat to beating Kansas City and making it to the Super Bowl next week. I still believe this is possible, but the ravens are an impressive roadblock.
Baltimore has a coach in John Harbaugh who won the Super Bowl and has won several road playoff games in his career. You could see the weight of the world drop off Lamar Jackson’s shoulders after his 48-yard touchdown in the first half in Tennessee. The Ravens have sizable edges in the ground play on either side of the ball, and the weather (upper 20’s, some snow, sustained winds at 23 mph) are hindering passing play downfield. It’s a tricky sum because Jackson and Josh Allen will still make big hits, but the weather does matter.
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