World News – UA – How the suburbs moved away from Trump


Suburban counties across the country turned away from President Trump in this election This includes the Midwestern and Sun Belt suburbs, in the Inner Ring counties and those further out, in predominantly white communities and more diversified

Suburban counties that were already Democratic leaning before 2020 leaned more and many of those who were deeply Republicans dismissed the president by several points

This graph shows how these counties voted in the preliminary results this year, compared to 2016 Collectively they’ve moved upward – toward Joe Biden This move, apparent in the Battlefield States, has been crucial to his chances to win the presidency

On average, M Biden improved Hillary Clinton’s performance by about 4 in those 373 suburban counties nationwide 8 percentage points as of Friday morning, a margin that could change slightly with the count still in progress (this average weights each county by population ) In Georgia it was more than eight points In Michigan and Wisconsin it was about three points

Nationally, these suburban counties are the places where the voting margins have changed the most since 2016 Mr. Trump has improved his margins in counties outside metropolitan areas, but by only by about a point Large urban counties , who are predominantly Democrats, also pushed the president about a point

The suburban model follows a trend of the 2018 midterm election, when voters from increasingly diverse and highly educated suburbs ousted many Republican members of Congress. Mr Trump made a big push this year to win back some of the suburban voters his party had lost, especially women, by campaigning on pledges to protect their communities from rising crime and declining values. properties

This post may have been acclaimed by Mr. Trump’s base And Republicans reclaimed swing neighborhoods at home But for president, suburban openings seem to have failed

The suburban reaction to the president was clearer in the Atlanta area, where a wave of votes for M Biden helped push the state into his column as early as Friday morning More than a dozen suburban Atlanta counties have moved to M Biden, who has made gains even deep in exurbs in many counties in the region, he has outperformed Ms Clinton by more than 10 points

Close-in Cobb County, which easily voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 – and barely for Mrs. Clinton four years ago – looks solidly Democratic this year, even in local races in Forsyth County, on the outskirts of the city, M Biden only won about 33 percent of the vote, but that was a significant improvement over Ms. 24 percent from Clinton in Forsyth and adjacent Cherokee County, M Biden won the largest share of the votes a Democratic presidential candidate has recorded since Jimmy Carter in 1980

Georgia’s emergence as a potential Blue State this year does not mean that Mr. Biden has won white college graduates across the state; a pre-election poll suggested it was unlikely.But by improving its performance with this group in the suburbs, and recording even modest gains in more peri-urban counties, it may be enough to build a winning coalition in Georgia in the sides of the state’s large and strongly democratic African-American population This is especially true given the high turnout this year in Fulton and DeKalb counties, in the heart of the Atlanta area.

In Pennsylvania, M Biden benefited from gains in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, as well as swings across much of the eastern half of the state In Michigan, he expanded his advantage in Oakland County, outside of Detroit

In Wisconsin, M Trump has consistently won each of the three traditionally conservative suburban counties that surround Milwaukee: Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties But all three favored M Trump less than four years ago, a key change in a state Mr. Biden won by only around 20,500 votes

The counties identified here are all located in metropolitan areas with a population of one million or more and they are considered suburbs if their parcel-weighted household density is less than about 2,000 households per square mile (we are borrowing an elaborate classification by economist Jed Kolko) Since some cities have a relatively low population density and are more suburban in character, some counties that contain central cities in a given metropolitan area are treated here as « suburbs »

This is particularly the case in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, where many residents describe their neighborhood in government surveys as a suburb As of Friday morning, votes were still being counted there and across Arizona. de Maricopa, by that time, had changed about six points from 2016 This may still be enough, in another battlefield state, to help secure M Biden a win

Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, President of the United States, Democratic Party

Global news – AU – How the suburbs moved away from Trump
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