World News – UA – New Caledonia has a second chance to break with France

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On Sunday October 4, the inhabitants of the French territory of the South Pacific of New Caledonia will vote in a second referendum on the advisability of separating after nearly 170 years Two years ago they voted to stay in France, has something changed this time around?

Over 180,000 longtime residents of New Caledonia are registered to vote “yes” or “no” to the question: “Do you want New Caledonia to acquire full sovereignty and become independent?”

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When asked exactly the same question in the first referendum two years ago 567% voted to stay in the French Republic, even though it is around 17,000 km away

But the polls predicted a crushing defeat for the independence camp and their surprisingly strong result came as a shock to France

This is the second of three referendums adopted under the 1998 Noumea Accord, signed between the French government, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) and anti-independence leaders

The deal aimed to put New Caledonia on the path to decolonization after years of bloody conflict in the 1980s between the indigenous independence Kanaks and the descendants of European settlers known as « Caldoches »

It allowed long-time residents to vote on New Caledonia’s future political status and the transfer of sovereign powers in the areas of defense, foreign policy, police, justice and currency

Most of the population of New Caledonia is made up of indigenous Melanesians (37%) and Caldoches (27%)

Eleven percent are migrants from other Pacific islands such as Tahiti, Wallis and Futuna and Vanuatu

Six political groups are campaigning: UC-FLNKS, Labor Party and United are in favor of independence, while “Loyalists” 1 and 2 and “Caledonia Together” are against

The campaign has been fiercer and more tense than two years ago, with little dialogue between the two sides

A special authorization allowing the use of the French tricolor in campaign spots angered the independentist FLNKS, which accuses the French government of taking sides against independence

Loyalist parties claim that rules limiting the right to vote in referendums – which led to the deletion of some 34,000 people from the lists – give the independence campaign an advantage

The supporters of # New Caledonia within the French Republic are constantly mobilizing 🇫🇷 # JevoteNon picTwittercom / zZflehSE8h

In 2018, pollsters predicted a much bigger victory for loyalists than turned out to be the case. No opinion poll has been released this time around

« I would be surprised if the yes prevailed, » said Pierre-Christophe Pantz, a geopolitics expert based in Nouméa

But Mathias Chauchat, professor of law at the University of New Caledonia and supporter of independence was more optimistic

« I have never seen such fervor, such a willingness to come together and participate », he told RFI « We have the feeling that victory is within reach »

Loyalists played the card of anguish with the message that « Yes to independence would mean the end of economic prosperity and security, » observed the RFI correspondent in Noumea

New Caledonia has the 4th largest nickel reserve in the world But also, the French government subsidizes the territory with approximately € 1.5 billion each year, or more than 15% of the gross domestic product of New Caledonia

The gap between the two camps could narrow depending on whether the roughly 33,000 people who abstained in 2018 voted

Loyalists hope the closer-than-expected 2018 result will convince people that they cannot afford to abstain

In 2018, smaller groups like the left-wing Labor Party and the USTKE trade union confederation called on their members not to vote in the referendum, saying the colonized Kanak people should vote alone But this year, they are campaigning for a yes

There has also been a shift among some of the migrant populations of islands like Wallis and Futuna

While the large Wallisian community has traditionally supported anti-independence parties, Oceanic Awakening, set up shortly after the first referendum, left the Polynesians to decide how to vote rather than follow the dominated loyalist alliance by Europe

Paris would stop paying its annual € 15 billion in annual subsidies, but a new development aid system would be put in place

If independence is rejected, the status quo will continue The Noumea Accord allows for a third referendum, to be held by 2022

Whether the vote is yes or no « a significant part of the population, mainly Kanak, will remain deeply attached to independence », writes Pierre-Christophe Pantz on the Outremers 360 site

Officially, the French government is neutral on the referendum Prime Minister Jean Castex announced it on September 29

But unlike 2018, when then Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and Emmanuel Macron both visited the archipelago, French officials have been scarce lately.

During a recent cabinet meeting, government spokesman Gabriel Attal said that « whatever the outcome of the referendum », President Macron will deliver a speech in Paris when the results are announced

He also said there would most likely be a ‘third referendum’, suggesting that the no should once again prevail

New Caledonia, France, independence, referendum