World News – UA – ‘Queensland paradox’ puts coal and climate at the center of election campaign

As Labor and the NL try to woo regional and metropolitan voters with sometimes conflicting messages, small parties are thriving

Sunday in Clermont – in the dusty heart of Queensland – National Liberal Coal Fanatic Senator Matt Canavan and mining tycoon Clive Palmer will stage a rally, mocking the convoy of climate protesters who made a trip some unwelcome north last year

Three days earlier, nearly 1,000 miles in the trendy western suburb of Brisbane, the Greens announced state election plans to provide free school meals, funded by a $ 55 billion increase in fees mining

Somewhere in between is what political scientist Glenn Kefford of the University of Queensland calls “the Queensland paradox” – the challenge for the main parties to woo voters in Toowong and Townsville with different messages, sometimes contradictory

« The state may appear a certain way to outsiders, but it is really interesting and diverse, » says Kefford

« What the main parties share, although the challenges are different, is a significant difficulty in attracting voters from metropolitan areas as well as those from the regions They are different in terms of geography and income They have attitudes difficult, in terms of views and beliefs about what governments should do « 

This complexity has been very broad since the writs were issued this week: a series of events have created a philosophical divide within the LNP; prompted some of Australia’s largest resource companies to quit their national lobby groups; and put the Greens at the center of the electoral story

As Labor and the LNP try to ‘walk on both sides of the street’ divisive issues, such as coal mining and climate change, have once again come to the forefront of the campaign

« He’s an absolute tramp, isn’t he? » a liberal national member based in north Queensland told Guardian Australia this week after the party executive approved a preference strategy to ‘put Labor last’

The ploy will, by extension, increase the Greens’ chances in a handful of Brisbane seats expected to be tight in three-turn matches The Greens hold one seat and expect to win at least two more among the Labor with LNP preferences – which will wipe out the majority of the two seats of government

The best chance for the Greens is in south Brisbane, held by former treasurer and deputy labor minister Jackie Trad

The LNP strategy may undermine the government’s attempts to retain a majority, but many members of the Conservative Party believe it comes with more risks than potential rewards

« We guarantee the election of at least two Greens, probably more, » said the LNP member. « If there is a suspended parliament and we have given the Greens the balance of power, then that’s it for the merger [of the liberal and national parties] – half of our support base will never forgive us It will crumble within a year « 

Robbie Katter, the leader of Katter’s Australian party, which holds three seats, this week cited the LNP strategy by announcing an exchange of preferences with One Nation

“Here in northern LNP they say they are coal friendly, but in Brisbane they tell everyone they are anti coal,” Katter said. “The truth is that ‘they prefer the Greens and they can’t bet every way « 

Another LNP source familiar with the discussion at the state executive meeting said North Queensland and other regional officials had raised objections to the preference strategy, but said been ignored

The other advantage for the Labor Party, which its national chairman and Queensland figure Wayne Swan was quick to point out this week, is that the LNP will also be criticized in progressive areas for shifting its preferences towards anti-vaccination groups, far-right parties and other marginal residents before Labor

The campaign’s first stumble appears to be the LNP putting Labor last in all seats They will be described as comforting everyone from the Greens to One Nation and Palmer with a bunch of anti-vaxxers rags and such thrown in https: // tco / rlJXS6VJll

On the same day the LNP decided on its strategy, the Queensland Resources Council began running Facebook ads urging voters to put the Greens last. At the end of the week, the world’s largest resource company Australia, BHP, and its largest energy company, Origin, suspended membership in industry lobby

For the Greens, the cleavages in the TNL and the resource sector are proof that their campaign has cuts

Michael Berkman, the Green MP for the Maiwar headquarters in the western outskirts of Maiwar, said the QRC advertising was a direct response to party pressure for miners to pay more in royalties

« I think people like what they hear from us, in terms of taking a fair share of the enormous [resource] wealth that we have in this state and putting that directly into the things that people need a good life, ”Berkman said

“From our perspective, the ultimate question is: who is going to benefit from Queensland’s resource wealth? We’re the only party that’s going to [raise royalties], so I’m not surprised that now we’re able to win a good handful of seats that the CRQ is falling apart « 

Of course, it’s impossible to talk about Queensland, coal, climate and elections without mentioning the third rail of this debate: Adani

On the eve of the election, Labor sought to neutralize a potential campaign glitch by signing a long-delayed royalty deal for Adani’s coal mine under construction in Carmichael

Poll released this week shows Labor extending dominance over LNP in Greater Brisbane Party also hopes to secure seats on Gold Coast and southern Sunshine Coast

The party’s regional seats are of greatest concern to Labor strategists, including the regional working-class towns of Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Gladstone, where voters turned fiercely to the Coalition in the Federal Election of 2019

The first, Annastacia Palaszczuk, launched her high-visibility ‘Jobs, Jobs and More Jobs’ campaign by traveling across North Queensland, spreading a pro-mining message

Kefford said Labor appeared to be trying to remedy the failures of last year’s federal election campaign in north and central Queensland by delivering messages tailored to local campaigns in regional areas

« The kind of macro level strategy Labor took in the Federal election, if you talk to someone from the Queensland Labor Party they were keen not to repeat the strategy and message mistakes that were not working with the Queensland Labor Party areas of Queensland, « said Kefford

« This brings us back to Adani’s announcement The unions send a message that they support the project and move it forward Obviously they would have thought about how this was going to affect [the party at the seats in the city] and we know that Adani is extremely unpopular in Brisbane and those inner city areas

« Again, that brings us back to that divide and how to successfully deal with that divide that prevents some sort of cohesive narrative or set of campaign messages that interest voters statewide »

Queensland politics has become known for its membership in minor parties, which Kefford says is in part a response to the need for Labor and the NL to chart a centrist path between communities – sometimes regional town to town – with varying priorities Katter’s Australian party need not worry about backlash on the Gold Coast; nor the Greens who upset the voters of Callide

« As the vote for the main parties shrinks, it offers opportunities for political entrepreneurs to capitalize on the decline in the vote and identification with the main parties, » Kefford said

When minor parties won seats, the vote split in three or four ways and the complicated preference tally decided the outcome KAP member from Hinchinbrook in North Queensland, Nick Dametto, won less than 21% of the primary vote in 2017

Berkman won Maiwar for the Greens by finishing second in the primary votes – 78 ahead of the Labor Party in third – and beating the LNP candidate

The Labor Party’s response to the LNP’s preference plan has been to rule out any deal with minor parties if the election results in a suspended parliament

Few experts believe that either side would refuse to negotiate to rule if it did not have a majority after October 31

Labor holds two-seat majority and PNL must win nine more seats to win government definitively The opposition has identified 11 target seats it hopes to win; the road to victory rests on victory in regional working class areas, well-off progressive city sieges and suburban electorates

« Chances are good for [a suspended parliament], there is no doubt, » Kefford said. « The main parties, they have to rationalize what they are doing and be strategic in their message They don’t may not be everything for everyone « 

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Queensland Greens, Queensland State Election 2020, Australian Greens, Queensland National Liberal Party, Annastacia Palaszczuk