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Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has taken on his cop case
Stock on 1. $ 000.
This corresponds to 5. $ 000 per share prior to the August stock split that happened in August. That would value the electric vehicle pioneer at just under $ 1 trillion.
However, its official rating for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) equals Hold and its official price target is $ 560, which is about 12% above current levels. The goal of 1. $ 000 is very bullish, but the $ 440 gap is nearly 90% of the current share price.
Investors can be forgiven for failing to understand why a stock with a trillion dollar potential is a hold. Ives isn’t the only one posting best-case scenarios for Telsa shares, however. It seems Wall Street’s preferred approach to dealing with uncertainty about the future of the EV industry.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, for example, at 1. $ 068 per share is an even higher target than Ives’. His bear case costs $ 250. In Jonas’ bull case, he assumes that Tesla will deliver 8 million vehicles a year by 2030. His bear isn’t that specific. Jonas assumed that the demand for electric vehicles would slow and Tesla would start trading like other automaker stocks. Jonas rates Tesla stock buy and has a target price of $ 540 on the stock.
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy rates Tesla’s Hold and has a price target of $ 400. Levy also publishes up and down scenarios. His most bullish fall predicts 2. 8 million vehicles sold in 2025. In this scenario, Tesla stock is almost $ 1. Worth 100 USD. His most bearish prediction is that fewer than 1 million vehicles will be sold in 2025, with a share price of $ 39.
For his part, Ives assumes that the use of electric vehicles will increase from around 3% of global new vehicle sales to around 10% by 2025. « Overall, we see a strong impact on the demand for electric vehicles worldwide, » Ives wrote on Sunday. And his new bull case goal of 1. $ 000 reflects a « steeper demand curve over the next 18 to 24 months ». ”
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Predicting penetration is difficult. Tesla only sold about 1. 2 million vehicles in the course of its life. Traditional automakers sell millions of vehicles every quarter. How quickly the EV transition is going is the big question for Tesla stock for the coming decade. A 10% difference in the global adoption of electric vehicles by the end of the decade could mean up to 2 million vehicle sales per year. That’s $ 100 billion in annual sales and maybe $ 20 billion in gross profit for Tesla.
The auto industry went through this type of change more than a century ago. In 1902 there were 23. 000 cars on American roads and 17 million horses. The car penetration for personal mobility was only 0. 1%. By 1912 there were 900. 000 vehicles registered. By 1922 there were 10 million. Car sales increased by an average of 35% per year on average for one generation.
By 1922, the horse had essentially lost its job to cars and electric carts. If this happened to the internal combustion engine, electric vehicle sales would grow an average of 25% per year for at least a decade. Few on Wall Street model this, but they are ready to disclose what impact such growth would have on the EV industry.
Tesla stock rose 20% last week after the S&P index committee on Jan.. November announced that it would include Tesla in the stock
on dec. . 21st. Shares are up 485% since the start of the year.
Tesla stock rose 4. 6% shortly after the market opened on Monday. The S&P 500 and the
Dow Jones industry average
were up to 0. 6 and 0. 7%.
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Tesla, Inc. . , Stock, NASDAQ: TSLA, Wedbush Securities, NASDAQ, S&P 500 Index, Daniel Ives
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