World News – USA – Debrief: AFC playoff picture takes shape on the track

The playoffs started Monday evening. The Ravens’ 47:42 win in Cleveland was game of the year and a reminder to anyone watching in Miami, Las Vegas and the rest of the AFC that Lamar Demeatrice Jackson doesn’t quietly walk away.

As part of this season, the Ravens, now 8-5, needed the game more. It was the team’s third game in 12 days since a COVID-19 outbreak nearly overturned their season and the NFL’s regular season schedule. It was the second game since Jackson returned from a serious battle with the virus that defined this season like everything else in American life. I pondered that absence as Jackson cramped eleven games in the fourth quarter, then returned for a 44-yard touchdown on 4th-and-5 that will remain part of 2019 MVP lore for as long as he plays. (Even if he didn’t pull a Paul Pierce. « )

Baltimore’s road to eleven wins is wide open, and the jaguars, giants and Bengals are next on the agenda. They may all have to win to squeeze into a stacked AFC field and Jackson seems ready to take it from here no matter how many injuries the Ravens’ defense takes.

In the context of the past 25 years, the Cleveland Browns needed the game more. That may always be the case until they win a couple of Super Bowls, like the organization that once left their town. But at 9-4 with wins over the Colts and Titans, these Browns don’t have to apologize for where they stand. The whole country saw the creativity, calm and aggression of Brown’s trainer Kevin Stefanski on Monday. The Browns are an offensive team and play like that. Baker Mayfield plays his season’s best ball when it counts.

Even so, Monday night’s result guarantees the Steelers will win the AFC North. Being part of a night like this is a step in the right direction for the 9-4 Browns, but they have to close the deal in the past three weeks. Her path to eleven wins and her first playoff spot since 2007 remain clear as the Giants, Jets and a Steelers team may be next to drop the starters. The Ravens and Browns should both be playing Wild Card Weekend, but it’s hard to imagine that they’ll play another game this season that outperforms this game.

1) The past two weeks have been exceptional for the Chiefs who are suddenly big favorites for being the AFC’s top seed. The Steelers, who lost two games in a row and fell to 11-2, simplified the race for the AFC’s top seed and the only playoff goodbye. The 12-1 Chiefs don’t even have to win to get the job done. You can lose one of your last three games and still get a home advantage as long as that loss hits the Saints in week 15 or the Hawks in week 16. (Oddly enough, the Chiefs’ regular season finale versus the Chargers is a bigger game than the upcoming trip to New Orleans. )

The Saints still may not have Drew Brees, who hasn’t been out on Sunday since Week 10, which doesn’t seem like a fair fight. The same was true of the Chiefs’ victory in Miami, where the Dolphins missed their first three running backs and two key linebackers at the start of the game and then lost a trio of their top pass catchers during the game.

Despite all of the missing Miami players, the Chiefs’ 33:27 win felt like a playoff competition. The Chiefs trained in early January and recognized their opponent by 10 points before placing 30 in a row, reminiscent of their two AFC playoff wins in Kansas City last postseason.

If a defensive game plan that helped Miami pick up Patrick Mahomes three times and fire him three more times wasn’t good enough to stop the Chiefs, what will it be? You are playing with an unmatched margin of error. Travis Kelce could be the first close end to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Receiver Sammy Watkins rounds his form just in time to make groundbreaking games in the playoffs. The Chiefs haven’t looked unbeatable during their current five-game stretch of one-point wins, but they have equipment that no other team can match and that appears to only be used when they really need it. I expect that equipment will be on display at the Superdome next week.

Home advantage isn’t everything, but it doesn’t help the rest of the AFC to give this Chiefs team a free playoff win and some extra nights at home in January. All in all, I think this is a better Chiefs team than the group that won Super Bowl LIV.

2) Heaven will be falling in Pittsburgh all week, but the Steelers remain Super Bowl contenders. Many champions have seen similar losses in two games in December, most recently the Patriots in 2018 and the Broncos in 2015. In a conference with no other truly dominant defenses, the Steelers’ onslaught can keep them in any game. In the first half of Sunday’s loss to the Bills, they held the explosive Buffalo offensive on seven trips to three points. Pittsburgh can also look forward to the return of linebacker Vince Williams and cornerback Joe Haden. It goes without saying that the results of the past two weeks are all on the offensive. The Steelers can’t win playoff games when the passing game is as sluggish as it has been and they are running out of time to improve it.

Home advantage is now an almost impossible goal, which is a strain on a veteran team who could have a week off. Pittsburgh’s new goal after Cleveland’s defeat: To win the AFC North against the Bengals next Monday night and win the game of 16. Use the week against the Colts as playoff preparation.

3) The defensive resurgence of the Buffalo Bills is the biggest December development in the AFC. The Bills nearly won the AFC East on Sunday, which can’t be missed considering they haven’t done the feat in 25 years. But Bill’s mafia should aim higher. The Bill’s defense is at the Expected Extra Points (EPA) per game in the three games since they left in Week 11 on Jan.. Place, which is not a shock given Sean McDermott’s track record and talent. They had to find out things, even if the rush of passers-by wasn’t like it used to be.

With an above average defense, the bills can beat any team. The Chiefs are favorites in the AFC, but it’s easy to see the Bills as one of the seven to eight NFL teams that have a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll showed an impressive ability to adjust on Sunday night when his original plan didn’t work against the Steelers. It’s a shame there probably won’t be fans in the stands, but the Bills should have a home game, possibly two.

4-5) The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans should both make the playoffs, but the importance of winning a division has never meant less. Removing the bye week for No.. 2 seeds in each conference that was part of expanding the playoff field to 14 teams could result in more games in week 17 with teams dying starters. In a season when there is no home advantage, different coaches are likely to have different strategies when it comes to playing for the seed. For example, what is worth more: improvement from No.. 6 seeds for No.. 4 seeds, even if you have to give it your all in the regular season finals? Or a week’s break for important starters after one of the toughest seasons imaginable?

I was thinking about it when I saw Derrick Henry collect 26 trages for the Titans versus the Jaguars on Sunday. Now, at 297 carries, he’s one who could have a week off before the playoffs. Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers, who plays with a bum, is another. The Colts ‘convincing win in Las Vegas made their playoff path much easier, and the Titans’ high win over the Jaguars also brought them 9-4. The Colts are the more complete team; The Titans have the more explosive offense. Both seem too limited to win everything, but an AFC title game is out of the question.

The AFC South will likely last through week 16. Both teams have tough road tests with the Titans playing in Green Bay and the Colts playing in Pittsburgh. But with winning games elsewhere on the game plan, winning a division title may not mean much other than having a chance to party in a year without enough opportunities to celebrate. Though that alone might be worth pursuing.

6) Injuries pile up for the Miami Dolphins at the worst time. Her best runner, Myles Gaskin, couldn’t get off the reserve / COVID-19 list in time for Miami’s week 15 game against the Patriots. QB Tua Tagovailoa struggles with an ankle injury while his top three passing goals (DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and Jakeem Grant) left the injury Chiefs with injury on Sunday. Tua’s maturation over the past few weeks is evident and it confirms that making him the starter all along has been wise – but the rookie isn’t ready to carry the team.

The playoff path for the Dolphins is pretty straightforward. At 8-5, they’re unlikely to reach week 17 with a chance at AFC East while Buffalo sits at 10-3. If you win against the Patriots, Raiders, and Bills, the Dolphins will come in, and maybe the Bills will rest in the final. However, this is a team with a small margin of error that decreases with each injury. If Brian Flores can somehow get the dolphins into the wildcard, he’ll deserve the Coach of the Year award. He can have my voice either way.

7) The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t done yet, but I happily stick a fork in them after they land on the wrong side of another 40 burger against the Colts. The dismissal of defense coordinator Paul Günther on Sunday evening underscored an unpleasant truth for Jon Gruden. Although the Raiders had three years to build the roster the way he wanted, they are no more on the defensive with many draft picks than they were when Gruden took over. The offense is good, but not good enough. Wins over the chargers on Thursday night and the dolphins in week 16 would keep the Raiders alive on their way to the season finale in Denver, but there’s little reason to believe that this team will lead the table.

The NFL Films year-end video for this Raiders team could be titled « Kicking Field Goals When It’s Down Two Points. ». « 

8) The inclusion of 6-7 New England Patriots in this column feels generous. This is not the NFC where multiple sub-. 500 teams remain in the playoff picture. It’s a nod to Bill Belichick, whose team usually peak in December but can’t figure out how to build a passing game around Cam Newton and the worst group of receivers in the NFL. To win seven or eight games with this roster would be overachieved. It is very unlikely that the Patriots can win games against all three AFC East teams. It’s just as unlikely that nine wins would be enough to get them into the playoffs.

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